Tag Archives: Fed
Will Inflation Actually Be Transitory?
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman “If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation … I expect that we will…
- Categories Equities, Fixed Income
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U.S. Treasuries Sold Off with Rising Breakeven Inflation in January
The year 2021 started with a continuous sell-off in the U.S. Treasury bond market. Starting on the second trading day of the year, yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose for five consecutive trading days by 23 bps until Jan. 12, 2021, when strong auction results for the 10-year note pulled the yield back…
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Not that wrong
Stock markets continue to rally globally, ascending a wall of poor economic data and significant negative sentiment. Concern that current price levels are unjustifiable is widespread: 78% of respondents to the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey believe that the market is overpriced, the highest level since the survey began in 1998. …
Federal Reserve Becomes Buyer of Last Resort
In a previous blog, we discussed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s initial responses to the current market volatility and resultant dislocations. In short, dropping rates to 0% and adding over USD 1 trillion to the funding markets did little to abate the severity of the situation. In an effort to prevent a liquidity crisis from turning…
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Treasuries Market Flashes Red, Fed Unleashes Tsunami
As global financial markets grapple with assessing the economic impact of COVID-19, U.S. Treasury yields reached unprecedented levels. On March 9, 2020, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell to an intra-day low of 0.32%. This was a drop of more than 125 bps from just three weeks earlier. As market participants fled…
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S&P 500 On Pace For Best January Since 1989
In the first seven trading days of 2019, the S&P 500 had its hottest start since 2003. That happened following the Fed’s message that it was in no hurry to raise interest rates. The Fed met again yesterday signaling it might end the interest rate increases, which pushed the S&P 500 up 1.55% for the day (Jan….
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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- Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Communication Services Is Getting Louder
Since the sector shakeup on Sep. 24, 2018, the S&P 500 fell 19.5% through the close of Dec. 24, 2018 then rebounded 12.2% by the close of Jan. 23, 2019 for a loss of 9.6% in the full period. The annualized volatility of 22.8% in the past 82 days has been the highest since the 82…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Large Caps Lag In Rebounds
The entire U.S, equity market lost on Monday, Dec. 17, 2018, meaning every one of the 42 segments by size, sector and style finished negative for the day. This was the second day in a row with losses across the board. From Oct. 10-11, 2018 was the last time two consecutive days with all losses…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Yield Curve Anxiety
The slope of the yield curve is a good recession predictor. When the curve is inverted – when the yield on three month T-bills is greater than the yield on the ten year T-Note – a recession is imminent. Similar signals can be seen if the T-bill is replaced by a two- or three-year T-Note…
- Categories Blitzer's Insights, Equities, Fixed Income, Strategy
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- Blitzer's Insights, Equities, Fixed Income, Strategy
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Inflation: Benign for Now
Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the…
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