Tag Archives: Fed

Inflation, Rising Rates Can Spark Oil’s Rebound

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting Wednesday that may raise the federal funds target rate, here’s what you need to know about how the decision impacts commodities. Historically rising interest rates are positive for commodities for two main reasons.  One is the return on collateral increases, pushing up the total return. The other reason Read more […]

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence Read more […]

The Fed: No Change In Rates Amidst Puzzling Policies

Questions and some answers on issues facing, or created at, the Fed Raise Rates? Not very likely next week at the September 21st FOMC meeting.  Recent data including August jobs report, declines in Industrial Production and Retail Sales and comments from FOMC members argue against a move now.  The November 2nd meeting is just days Read more […]

What’s Next from the Fed

Last weekend the Federal Reserve held its annual symposium at Jackson Hole Wyoming and discussed near and longer term monetary issues. No Rate hike in September There are three FOMC meetings remaining this year: September 21st, November 2nd and December 14th. While there is no rule that all interest rate target changes must come at Read more […]

Oil’s Price Rise Boosts All Equity Sectors, But One

The S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return is up 15.2%, its biggest six day gain, ending Aug. 18, 2016, since the six day gain of 16.1%, ending on Apr. 13, 2016.  As both the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and IEA (International Energy Agency) consider the oil price as a major input to global GDP estimates, and the IMF states the Read more […]

The Fed’s New Normal

Since the demise of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers in 2008, Federal Reserve policy has focused on containing market turmoil and disruption.  Current Fed policy built on a massively expanded balance sheet (first chart); the quantitative easing that inflated the balance sheet and the Fed funds rate glued to the zero lower bound (second chart). Read more […]

Expect more starting and stopping at the Fed on Interest rates.

Given the FOMC minutes released yesterday we expect to see two rate increases in 2016. The next move is likely to be in June, not at the April 27th meeting. Some analysts blame disagreements within the Fed for what they see as inconsistent and changing policy.  While it is difficult to anticipate short term market Read more […]

Floating Securities in Advance of Rising Rates

This Wednesday, the Fed announced that they would begin raising rates, a decision that has left many investors with questions about how they will fare in this changing environment.  Knowing that conventional, fixed-rate securities sometimes lose value when interest rates increase has some investors looking to floating-rate securities instead.  Floating-rate securities are designed to mitigate Read more […]

New Risk-Off: More Fear Today Than Tomorrow

It has been over nine years since the Fed raised interest rates, but today, the Fed raised rates just as expected. While the Fed actions have been well telegraphed, and interest rates are probably the least of worries for commodities, there is one measure that might be worrisome. Although since 1991, rising rates seem not to have Read more […]

The Highs and Lows of the High Yield Energy and Materials Sectors

The S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index has just over USD1 trillion of par amount outstanding while its total return is down 3.11% for the month and down 4.51% YTD.  The energy and materials sectors have been the sore spot for the high yield market, given the anxiety over credit quality, as current low Read more […]