Mea culpa: Roughly a month ago I used a dispersion-correlation map to describe how index dynamics can illuminate market movements. In particular, I reported that since high dispersion seems to be a necessary condition for a bear market, and S&P 500 dispersion levels at the end of February were far below those prevailing in past Read more […]
The rapid spread of coronavirus and oil price concerns have whipsawed U.S. equities since the S&P 500® reached its all-time high on Feb. 19, 2020. On March 16, 2020, the index plummeted by 12%, its worst decline since October 1987; as of the close of trading on March 18, 2020, losses for the S&P 500 Read more […]
The fall in equity market values since February’s peak has been sudden and dramatic. During this period, the equity markets have functioned well at their primary task of facilitating price discovery at a time when values were changing rapidly. Equity investors who wanted to trade have been able to trade. (Whether they were wise to Read more […]
The last few weeks have definitely felt like a “where were you when…?” moment as coronavirus fears spread around the world and many people’s day-to-day lives have been disrupted. Amid the anxiety and disruption, global financial markets nosedived, sending all major equity indices tumbling, VIX® soaring to levels not seen since the financial crisis, and Read more […]
With the S&P 500 down -14.7% for calendar 2020, and -18.8% since its peak in late February, investors are rightly concerned to identify strategies that might help to mitigate the ongoing decline. A number of defensive factor indices have performed relatively well in March, but the leader for the year so far is S&P 500 Read more […]
The last few days have been turbulent for financial markets as coronavirus contagion fears took hold. Global equities fell; the S&P 500®’s 6.6% price return plunge since the end of last week wiped off its year-to-date gains; recent U.S. sector and industry declines mean that nearly all S&P Composite 1500® industries are down month-to-date; and Read more […]
The four most dangerous words in investing are “This time it’s different.” – Sir John Templeton As investors ponder the ultimate extent of the coronavirus epidemic, this week’s equity market declines are of natural concern to every asset owner. The obvious question, after near-record point drops in major indices yesterday and today, is how much Read more […]
Over the last few years, mega-cap companies have played an increasingly important role in driving U.S. equity market returns. Indeed, the five largest names in the S&P 500® accounted for 16.8% of the index at the end of last year, the highest year-end weight since 1982 and higher than the 16.6% reached at the end Read more […]
After a pullback in the market over the last week, it remains to be seen if U.S. equities will finish the month in the black. However, as of yesterday’s close, the S&P Composite 1500, which represents over 90% of U.S. equity capitalization, was up 1.21% since the turn of the year as large cap gains Read more […]
Every year, certain trends take centre stage and help to explain market returns. For example, expectations over trade negotiations and Fed policy were useful for explaining market performance in 2019. Many of these developments often appear obvious with the benefit of hindsight, but identifying the trends and their subsequent impact in advance is far from Read more […]
