Jan 13, 2021

Oscillations in Opportunity

2020 was a year of two reversals for the market. First, equities recovered from the depths of March to finish the year strongly, and second, smaller-cap and value stocks staged a roaring comeback in the final quarter. We can better understand the second reversal by analyzing the market’s distribution of returns and the performance of…

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Jan 12, 2021

Style Rotation through the Revenue Exposure Lens

One of the major trends in the last few years has been the outperformance of large, growth-oriented stocks and, at first glance, 2020 represented a continuation of this trend. For example, the S&P 500® Growth (33.5%) outperformed the S&P 500 Value (1.4%) by 32.1% last year, the largest difference in calendar year total returns between…

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Jan 7, 2021

A Reversal, or Two

For many equity investors, the stand-out theme of last year was the reversal in the market’s initial response to, and recovery from, the COVID-19 pandemic: the dramatic price declines in March, the wild swings around the bottom as VIX® marked its highest closing level ever, and the just-as-dramatic recovery to new all-time highs by late…

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Jan 4, 2021

Persistence

Lyndon Baines Johnson became President of the United States at a moment of national trauma, and left office at a time of tremendous political division. Despite a landslide electoral victory in 1964 and notable legislative achievements, his was not a happy presidency. LBJ observed, in fact, that “being President is like being a jackass in…

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Dec 22, 2020

Tesla: Not an Automatic Addition to the S&P 500 ESG Index

Since S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Tesla would be added to the S&P 500® on Dec. 21, 2020, many investors have contacted us asking when this transformative company will become a member of the S&P 500 ESG Index, the sustainable counterpart to the S&P 500. The answer, in brief, is that Tesla will not…

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Dec 9, 2020

The Distribution of Alpha

Investment management is a zero sum game. The source of outperformance for a market’s outperformers is the underperformance of the same market’s underperformers. Properly measured, the weighted average sum of the winners’ gains is exactly equal (before costs) to the weighted average sum of the losers’ losses. This identity, along with the professionalization of the…

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Dec 8, 2020

Reversal or Recovery?

When we think about reversals in the market, we likely think of brief turnarounds in performance.  But what if it’s more? What makes a reversal turn into a recovery is a full-fledged long-term improvement in performance. We can apply this logic to Equal Weight’s recent experience.  After consistent underperformance since April 2017, the S&P 500®…

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Dec 1, 2020

The Dangers of Extrapolation

The contrasts between the first 10 months of 2020 and the month of November were vivid. Consider: At the end of October, the year-to-date total return of the S&P 500® was barely positive (2.77%), but was well ahead of the returns of the S&P MidCap 400® (-6.63%) and the S&P SmallCap 600® (-13.06%). In November,…

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Nov 17, 2020

Tesla Added to the S&P 500

Yesterday, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that Tesla will be added to the S&P 500® prior to the open on Monday, Dec. 21, 2020. The Index Committee has not yet determined which current constituent Tesla will replace, nor how Tesla will be added to the index—because of its size, S&P DJI is seeking feedback through…

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Nov 16, 2020

Motions of the Market

The S&P 500® rose by 10% in the 12 months ending on Oct. 31, 2020, trouncing the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index by 9.1%, as seen in Exhibit 1. While such outperformance is not unprecedented, it does remind us of previous market peaks (especially in December 1999), and raises questions about whether a reversal may…

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