Tag Archives: interest rates
Will Inflation Actually Be Transitory?
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman “If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation … I expect that we will…
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Treasuries Market Flashes Red, Fed Unleashes Tsunami
As global financial markets grapple with assessing the economic impact of COVID-19, U.S. Treasury yields reached unprecedented levels. On March 9, 2020, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond fell to an intra-day low of 0.32%. This was a drop of more than 125 bps from just three weeks earlier. As market participants fled…
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How S&P DJI’s Fixed Income Indices Harness Data and Technology to Power the Markets of the Future
Thanks to the clever ad campaign by Policygenius, riders of the NYC subway have been reminded that we were promised glass-domed houses, flying cars, and vacation homes in outer space by 2020. Although robot maids may have come true via Amazon’s Alexa, they definitely fall short of the robot maid Rosie from the cartoon The…
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Channeling Maverick and the Maestro: The Fed Cut Rates because “We Were Inverted”
One of the classic scenes from the original Top Gun movie recounts the exchange Maverick (Tom Cruise) had with a MiG-28. Maverick corrects Charlie’s (Kelly McGillis) intelligence report on the Russian fighter jet with his eyewitness account. When she asks how he saw a MiG-28 perform a 4G dive from above, he responds: “Because I…
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S&P 500 On Pace For Best January Since 1989
In the first seven trading days of 2019, the S&P 500 had its hottest start since 2003. That happened following the Fed’s message that it was in no hurry to raise interest rates. The Fed met again yesterday signaling it might end the interest rate increases, which pushed the S&P 500 up 1.55% for the day (Jan….
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Communication Services Is Getting Louder
Since the sector shakeup on Sep. 24, 2018, the S&P 500 fell 19.5% through the close of Dec. 24, 2018 then rebounded 12.2% by the close of Jan. 23, 2019 for a loss of 9.6% in the full period. The annualized volatility of 22.8% in the past 82 days has been the highest since the 82…
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The 2nd Worst December Is Only Half The Story
The S&P 500 lost 9.2% in its second worst December on record – only behind December 1931 when the index lost 14.5%. However, the widespread losses across sectors, styles and sizes in the broad U.S. equity market was remarkable with every major segment down in December. Only 9 times in history has every segment of the…
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Taking Stock Of U.S. Equities In 2018
As the year comes to a close with just two trading days left of the second worst December on record since 1931 for the S&P 500, it may be hard to remember the relatively calm rise before the volatile downturn took over. Though there is not an official bear market yet, there was a 19.8%…
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Large Caps Lag In Rebounds
The entire U.S, equity market lost on Monday, Dec. 17, 2018, meaning every one of the 42 segments by size, sector and style finished negative for the day. This was the second day in a row with losses across the board. From Oct. 10-11, 2018 was the last time two consecutive days with all losses…
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Cost of Retirement Income Q3 2018 Update
Real U.S. interest rates have shifted upward YTD in 2018, with a larger shift on the short end than the long̬̬—producing a flatter curve. Exhibit 1 shows the real yield curve (from 5 to 30 years) at the end of each quarter since December 2017 and also includes data as of Oct. 9, 2018 to…
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