Tag Archives: housing

Oct 9, 2018

Housing Slows

Sales of new and existing single-family homes have fallen since their recent high in November 2017 while pending home sales are flat to down so far this year.  Starts of new single-family homes are volatile but also remain below the peak seen at the end of 2017.  Recent press reports of declining activity in several…

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Sep 12, 2018

Price-to-Rent as an Overvaluation Metric

Market Conditions Indicator and price-to-rent can locate overheated metros The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index has documented that home prices have risen in all metropolitan areas over the last few years.  While price gains vary considerably across urban markets, some places have had especially rapid appreciation that put values above their pre-Great Recession peak, even after…

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May 16, 2018

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the…

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Jan 5, 2018

A Bit of Long History

Houses or Stocks Either could be an investment, if only we knew which would perform better?  We don’t, but a recently released academic paper, “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015” offers understanding and some unexpected facts from the past.  The paper covers 16 developed markets and compiles the real and nominal returns on equities,…

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Jul 20, 2017

Bubbles and Housing

Home prices nationally are rising two to three times faster than inflation. They are up 5.5% from a year ago with some cities rising at double-digit rates. Looking at the chart of the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, many are wondering if we’re in another housing bubble. While prices are rising, the following charts…

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Jul 22, 2016

Party like it’s 2007

House sales and prices are rising.  Home sales in June were 5.57 million at annual rates, the highest since February 2007 when national home prices peaked.  Currently prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index are climbing at a 5% annual rate and are a mere 3% from their all-time peak. What next? …

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May 20, 2016

Don’t Blame Tight Supplies for Rising Home Prices

The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index shows prices of existing single family homes rising 5.3% annually in the last few months, well above the rate of inflation. Recent comments cite the low inventory of homes for sale as a leading factor in higher prices. Housing markets are local and some communities may be seeing house…

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Sep 1, 2015

Will Housing Be Dealt Another Bad Hand?

On Monday, Aug. 24, 2015, the global stock market tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average® losing 1,000 points in seconds. We have seen similar turbulence in the equity markets in 1987, 1997, 1998, 2007, and 2008. We know that the stock market is an important leading indicator, as it reports on the health of…

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Jun 22, 2015

Upbeat Housing Reports

Two recent data points – existing home sales and mortgage debt outstanding – point to continued strength in the housing recovery. May total existing home sales, including single family homes, town houses and condominiums, were 5.35 million, up 5.1% and the highest figure since November 2009. Sales of single family homes were 4.73 million, 5.6%…

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Apr 28, 2015

A Tale of Two Energy Cities – Dallas and Denver

This post examines the relationship between Dallas and Denver, utilizing the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for each city.  The pair was selected based on a correlation analysis that yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.84 between the two cities.  This analysis covered the 20 metropolitan indices in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index series, utilized log returns…

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