Every Country’s Stock Market Loses From Trade Tensions

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released its World Economic Outlook, October 2018, with estimated global trade tension scenario impacts on GDP.  Overall, the IMF states that recent tariffs will hurt GDP and that additional tariffs will weaken it further.  In the long term, according to the IMF’s scenario analysis, the U.S. GDP will be 0.9% Read more […]

Breaking Down Volatility

“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” – Sherlock Holmes (in “The Adventure of the Copper Beeches”) Despite yesterday’s hand wringing loss for equity markets— the S&P 500 dropped 3.3%—the index is still up 5.8% year to date 2018. Nevertheless, losing in one day a third of what the equity market Read more […]

Momentum Bubble Deflating?

Yesterday’s decline in the U.S. and global stock markets is striking not simply because of its magnitude but also because it represents a radical reversal of factor returns from the first three quarters of 2018. Readers of our quarterly factor dashboard will recognize this graph, which shows the total return of the S&P 500 and Read more […]

Ways To Avoid Getting Pink-Slipped In Retirement

Maybe you can’t technically get fired after retiring, but running out of income in retirement is a real risk many people fear.  According to TIAA, 49% of Americans say their No. 1 goal for a retirement plan is to provide guaranteed monthly income in retirement, and 68% of Americans would first choose a retirement paycheck that Read more […]

Housing Slows

Sales of new and existing single-family homes have fallen since their recent high in November 2017 while pending home sales are flat to down so far this year.  Starts of new single-family homes are volatile but also remain below the peak seen at the end of 2017.  Recent press reports of declining activity in several Read more […]

Beyond the SPIVA® Europe Mid-Year 2018 Headlines – Delving Deeper Into the Data

The S&P Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) Europe Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard is often cited for its latest headlines surrounding the active vs. passive debate. But beyond the SPIVA headlines, there is an extensive offering of insightful data that has been carefully measured and presented to help readers dig deeper. Let’s look at just one example from Read more […]

Index-Based Investing: A Simple Solution

Making a suitable investment decision among multiple options has always been a dilemma. Market-linked investment options have generally resulted in apprehensive views from conservative investors who sense that equity markets bear heavy risks. Retail investors who lack an understanding of the markets are at risk, as bull runs tend to promote participation. Index-based investing can Read more […]

SPIVA® Latin America Mid-Year 2018 Results

Last week, the SPIVA Latin America Mid-Year 2018 Scorecard was released. The scorecard tracks the performance of active mutual funds in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico through the end of June 2018. Exhibit 1 shows how managers fared against their respective category benchmarks for one-, three-, and five-year lookback periods. In the short- and long-term periods, Read more […]

Carbon Costs – LatAm Analysis

For the first time, the main S&P DJI indices in Latin America have been analyzed by Trucost to reveal their exposure to a range of different carbon metrics that prudent investors may want to be aware of. A central element of the analysis is the estimated portion of earnings that could be lost if the Read more […]

Developing Expectations for Long-Term U.S. Stock Returns

In this bull market, by some measures the longest running in U.S. history, investors may wonder what its prospects for continuation are. Judging by rolling quarterly 10-year annualized returns, the S&P 500® does not necessarily seem over-extended. As Exhibit 1 shows, since the end of World War II, large retracements followed lengthy periods of greater-than-10% Read more […]