The Skew Is Not New

Market observers have noted that the S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been dominated by a small number of technology stocks.  This observation is certainly correct, although it’s fair to question the relevance of a statistic based on fewer than two months’ data.  What’s more important is to bear in mind that this Read more […]

Can High Concentrations Lead to Equal-Weight Outperformance?

Assigning equal weights to each constituent, such as in the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index, historically would have offered material outperformance over capitalization-weighted benchmarks across a range of markets.  Earlier this year, we published a paper examining how this occurred. There are several perspectives one can take, ranging from factor or sector exposures all the Read more […]

Decomposing Recent Volatility Events Part 1

After a strong January 2018, the U.S. equity market started February with a roller coaster ride. The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®), which has been relatively quiet over the past couple years, spiked up and crossed the 50 mark intraday on Feb. 5, 2018. On the same day, the S&P 500® VIX Short Term Futures Inverse Read more […]

Do Earnings Revisions Matter in India?

Market participants have used common risk factors such as value, momentum, dividends, low volatility, quality, and size (small cap) to construct portfolios historically. Our recently published research paper, “Do Earnings Revisions Matter in Asia?,” explored the performance of earnings revision strategies as an alternative source of return drivers across seven markets in Pan Asia, including Read more […]

The Difference a Few Days Make

For investors, things looked very different between the end of January and the first part of February. Following a few days of market turmoil in February, volatility jumped to levels where it is once again at the forefront of investors’ consciousness. Volatility based on a 252-day lookback generally declined for S&P 500 sectors (Telecom excluded) Read more […]

How Will It End?

The Fed is raising interest rates, the yields on Treasury notes are climbing, the stock market just had a hyper-speed correct, VIX spiked and the inflation numbers are worrying.  Is there a message buried in all these data? Maybe not a clear message, but one sure thing and some hints.  The sure thing is that Read more […]

What do inventories tell us about the economy?

Declining inventories and rising industrial production may create a strong backdrop for value and momentum strategies Falling business inventory ratios have often been a positive economic indicator. With business inventory levels on the decline, value and momentum strategies could be poised to outperform. A strategy that combines value and momentum could serve as a useful Read more […]

Crude Oil: On Production, Performance, and Roll Yield

In November 2017, according to the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production surpassed 10 million barrels per day for the first time since November 1970. After 1970, it began to decline, dropping bellow 7 million barrels per day in February 1993, below 6 million barrels in March 1999, and then remaining at that level Read more […]

How Do Single Factors Perform in Different Market Regimes in India?

In continuation to our previous blog titled “Factor Investing 101,” this blog investigates the performance of single factor indices in the Indian equity market. Over the period from October 2005 to June 2017, portfolios for all risk factors we examined—low volatility, momentum, value, quality, dividend, and size (small cap)—outperformed the S&P BSE LargeMidCap (see Appendix Read more […]

With all the News of Higher Interest Rates, Don’t Forget About Floating-Rate Debt

The story line for a number of years now has been the “search for yield” and how the recent low-interest-rate environment has been forcing investors down in credit or out the maturity curve in an effort to maintain income though adding risk. Now that interest rates have begun reversing the low-rate environment, fixed-coupon securities may Read more […]