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Tag Archives: U.S. Federal Reserve

Jun 15, 2021

Will Inflation Actually Be Transitory?

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman  “If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation … I expect that we will…

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Dec 11, 2019

2019: A Market Review

With 2019 coming to a close, market participants may use the time to evaluate portfolio performance and to assess what changes (if any) they would like to make based on return expectations and the market outlook.  While the future is uncertain – hindsight really will be 2020 when it comes to evaluating next year’s returns…

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Oct 24, 2018

Leveraged Loans in a Rising Rate Environment – Carry Factor Dominates

Since the end of 2015, the U.S. Federal Reserve has raised the policy rate eight times to currently 2.0%-2.25%. The minutes of the recent September FOMC meeting reiterated the committee’s positive growth outlook and confidence on 2% inflation. Market players continued to catch up on pricing future Fed hikes. Currently the market is implying approximately…

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Aug 16, 2018

Musings of a Market Commentator

The S&P DJI index strategy team has for several years produced a variety of monthly and quarterly index dashboards.  Earlier this year, we began to provide a daily summary of what S&P DJI indices and research are telling us about the markets on a day-to-day basis.  (The summary is e-mailed daily to subscribers; see the…

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Mar 23, 2017

Rising Rates Arrive

Which of the figures below belong together?   It’s obvious, even if analogies aren’t your strong suit, that A is like C and B is like D.  A and C are not like B and D. The economic relevance of this simple visual exercise is this: At its March 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market…

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Sep 21, 2016

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence…

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Dec 2, 2015

Rising Interest Rates May Not Have an Immediate Impact on Senior Loan Rates

Following months of uncertainty, the U.S. Federal Reserve has indicated that there could soon be a hike in the Federal Funds Target Rate.  Interest rates have been kept in a range between zero and one-quarter of a percent since December 2008 and have not risen since June 2006. As interest rates have been at historically…

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