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Tag Archives: bear market

Jul 24, 2023

Comparing Defensive Factors in the Recent Market Environment

On Sept. 17, 2020, S&P DJI’s Indexology blog shared a post I wrote titled “Comparing Defensive Factors During the Last 3 Bear Markets.” This blog is a continuation of that study, examining the results of the same factors during the 18-month period around the 2022 market correction that led the S&P 500® officially into bear…

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Jan 9, 2023

Do Friendly Bears Exist?

“Never sell the bear’s skin before one has killed the beast.” Jean de La Fontaine. On Wall Street, bear markets represent declines of at least 20% from their highs. But on Main Street, bears are anthropomorphized as friendly. Here we look at whether bears can also be “friendly” in financial markets, looking at the S&P…

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Oct 14, 2022

Taking Higher Interest Rates in STRIDE

When it rains, it pours, and there’s no lack of bad news in 2022. The equity market is in solid bear territory, with the S&P 500® down 22% YTD. Inflation is high, and the Federal Reserve has aggressively hiked interest rates in recent months. The latest cycle of rate increases has happened faster than at…

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Oct 12, 2022

Making a Virtue of Necessity

When the market declines by nearly 24%, as the S&P 500® did in the first nine months of 2022, investors typically lick their wounds and wonder what comes next. Spoiler alert: I don’t know. But there are ample historical data to explore amidst our befuddlement. First, the bad news: Exhibit 1 shows that there is…

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Sep 12, 2022

The Power of Style

At some risk of oversimplification, the 16.1% decline in the S&P 500® for the first eight months of 2022 can be divided into three intervals, as the market fell by 20.0% through June, rallied in July, and then resumed its decline in August. This story, of course, is still evolving: for all we now know,…

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Aug 26, 2022

S&P 500 GARP Index: Growth at a Reasonable Price Anyone?

While growth stocks have the potential to grow at a rate significantly above the market, they have faltered during 2022 on the back of high inflation and rising interest rates. For market participants toying with the idea of when and how to get back in, the S&P 500® GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) Index…

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Jul 11, 2022

Patience Is a Virtue

With the first half of 2022 in the books, commentators have noted that this year’s -20.0% total return for the S&P 500® is the worst January-June result in more than 50 years. Painful as the first six months were, what might they tell us about the rest of the year? History gives us both bad…

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Jun 21, 2022

Bearing Through

On Monday, June 13, 2022, the S&P 500® officially entered bear market territory, having lost more than 20% of the value from its peak on Jan. 3, 2022. Just as we didn’t know on Jan. 3 that the market was going to decline, today we don’t know the full extent and duration of the new…

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Mar 25, 2020

Coronaviral Correlations

Mea culpa: Roughly a month ago I used a dispersion-correlation map to describe how index dynamics can illuminate market movements.  In particular, I reported that since high dispersion seems to be a necessary condition for a bear market, and S&P 500 dispersion levels at the end of February were far below those prevailing in past…

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Mar 17, 2020

Equity Liquidity at a Reasonable Price

The fall in equity market values since February’s peak has been sudden and dramatic.  During this period, the equity markets have functioned well at their primary task of facilitating price discovery at a time when values were changing rapidly.  Equity investors who wanted to trade have been able to trade.  (Whether they were wise to…

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