Tag Archives: Fed

S&P 500 On Pace For Best January Since 1989

In the first seven trading days of 2019, the S&P 500 had its hottest start since 2003.  That happened following the Fed’s message that it was in no hurry to raise interest rates.  The Fed met again yesterday signaling it might end the interest rate increases, which pushed the S&P 500 up 1.55% for the day (Jan. Read more […]

Communication Services Is Getting Louder

Since the sector shakeup on Sep. 24, 2018,  the S&P 500 fell 19.5% through the close of Dec. 24, 2018 then rebounded 12.2% by the close of  Jan. 23, 2019 for a loss of 9.6% in the full period.  The annualized volatility of 22.8% in the past 82 days has been the highest since the 82 Read more […]

Large Caps Lag In Rebounds

The entire U.S, equity market lost on Monday, Dec. 17, 2018, meaning every one of the 42 segments by size, sector and style finished negative for the day.  This was the second day in a row with losses across the board.  From Oct. 10-11, 2018 was the last time two consecutive days with all losses Read more […]

Yield Curve Anxiety

The slope of the yield curve is a good recession predictor. When the curve is inverted – when the yield on three month T-bills is greater than the yield on the ten year T-Note – a recession is imminent. Similar signals can be seen if the T-bill is replaced by a two- or three-year T-Note Read more […]

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the Read more […]

Turning Point in Bond Yields

The ten year Treasury note closed with a yield over 2.5% this week, sparking talk that interest rates may have bottomed. The first chart shows the yield on the 10 year treasury going all the way back to 1953.  As seen there, the bottom in July 2016 at 1.5%. Last March the yield was 2.5%, Read more […]

Rising Rate Implications for Japanese Investors

The Fed raised rates for the third time this year, bringing the benchmark Fed Fund Target Rate to 1.25%-1.50%, as expected. U.S. Treasuries outperformed Japanese sovereign bonds in 2017, while U.S. Treasuries’ volatility also came down to one-half of the previous level. As of Dec. 13, 2017, the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index Read more […]

Inflation, Rising Rates Can Spark Oil’s Rebound

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting Wednesday that may raise the federal funds target rate, here’s what you need to know about how the decision impacts commodities. Historically rising interest rates are positive for commodities for two main reasons.  One is the return on collateral increases, pushing up the total return. The other reason Read more […]

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence Read more […]

The Fed: No Change In Rates Amidst Puzzling Policies

Questions and some answers on issues facing, or created at, the Fed Raise Rates? Not very likely next week at the September 21st FOMC meeting.  Recent data including August jobs report, declines in Industrial Production and Retail Sales and comments from FOMC members argue against a move now.  The November 2nd meeting is just days Read more […]