In November, there was high market volatility in response to at least a few major events including the U.S. midterm elections, Brexit, G20 and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The risk (measured by 30-day annualized volatility) on Nov. 30, 2018 for the S&P 500 was 20.6%, which is 3.5 times higher than its risk of 5.9%…
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Small caps just outperformed large caps for three consecutive months for the first time since Sep. 2016. From Feb. through May, the S&P SmallCap 600 (TR) outpaced the S&P 500 (TR) by 9.5%. It is the biggest premium realized in a three month period since the three months ending in May 2002. In fact, outperformance this big has only happened…
The U.S. dollar hit a 4 month high last week from concern over potentially faster interest rate hikes to control inflation as oil exceeded $70 per barrel and the lowest unemployment since 2000 was reported. If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, it may be useful to know how U.S. equities moved historically in times when the…
The S&P 500 just posted its best January since 1997, and also had its highest measured optimism, a 6.6% risk premium, since October 2015. Whether history repeats itself is yet to be seen, but just a few days after that high risk premium, the stock market topped on Nov. 3, 2015. By December investors saw the…
The first estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter is set to be released this Friday and the median forecast is 3.0% according to MarketWatch, which if met or exceeded will be the first time 3 consecutive quarters to show at least 3% growth since the first quarter of 2005. While this is supportive…
After OPEC agreed to an oil output cut in Algiers on Sep. 29, they increased supply by 230 kb/d to a record 33.83 mb/d in October according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Supply from Iraq reached the highest level ever and Iran pushed flows to a pre-sanctions rate of 3.72 mb/d. Now OPEC supply has…
By now we are all painfully aware that the U.S. equity market was essentially flat in 2015. The S&P 500’s total return was 1.38%, all of which was a function of dividend income — the index’s price return was -0.73%. Other large-cap averages were in the same ballpark — the Dow Industrials, e.g., logged a total…
Consistency and balance are often essential qualities for a strong portfolio. In the fixed income space, investors can look to the S&P International Corporate Bond Index to bolster the stability and diversity of their investments through exposure to investment grade corporate debt outside the United States. International corporate bonds are issued in a variety of…
In the past 18 months, currency hedging has become one of the hottest topics in the investment community. As the U.S. economy strengthens and decouples from the rest of the developed and emerging economies, and as there is unprecedented quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, it is nearly inevitable…
If we’re talking about the worst performing months for commodities, March 2015 should be dominating the conversation. The S&P GSCI Total Return is down 9.1% month-to-date (as of 3/17/15) and is on track to post the 4th worst March in history of the index since 1970; only 2003 (-14.4%), 1980 (-14.0%) and 1974 (-11.5%) lost more. All 24…
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