Tag Archives: U.S. dollar
Hedging Debt Ceiling Drama with the S&P GSCI SOFR and S&P GSCI Gold
The debt ceiling debate in Washington appears to be nearing an end. According to the U.S. Treasury, Congress has “always acted when called upon” and markets will look for them to do so for the 79th time this month. By index rule, all commodities in the S&P GSCI are traded in U.S. dollars, so the…
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Safe Harbors and Silver Linings
As we reflect on this year’s notable market themes, one trend is certain: it has been a tumultuous market characterized by rate hikes and inflation concerns across regions, with significant losses across asset classes. Crypto market performance added to jitters, with the S&P Cryptocurrency LargeCap Index down 66% YTD. Losses throughout the year culminated in…
- Categories Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
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- Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Examining Equal Weight
In this tumultuous market characterized by Fed rate hikes, elevated inflation and a strong dollar, mega-cap growth companies have suffered heavy losses, paced by recent “Big Tech” earnings disappointments from Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and others. The S&P 500® Top 50 declined by 19% over the past 12 months, underperforming the S&P 500 by 5%….
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Unsung Stories of 2020
Early in 2020, global stock markets acted in concert during the sell-off, bottoming out around the world in late March. However, the extent to which different markets declined, and the strength of the subsequent recovery, differed significantly around the world. With 2020 now in hindsight, S&P DJI’s range of global equity indices tell a tale…
- Categories Equities
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- Equities
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Mid Caps Less Risky Than Large Caps?
In November, there was high market volatility in response to at least a few major events including the U.S. midterm elections, Brexit, G20 and Fed Chair Powell’s comments. The risk (measured by 30-day annualized volatility) on Nov. 30, 2018 for the S&P 500 was 20.6%, which is 3.5 times higher than its risk of 5.9%…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Small Caps Beating Large By The Most In 16 Years
Small caps just outperformed large caps for three consecutive months for the first time since Sep. 2016. From Feb. through May, the S&P SmallCap 600 (TR) outpaced the S&P 500 (TR) by 9.5%. It is the biggest premium realized in a three month period since the three months ending in May 2002. In fact, outperformance this big has only happened…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Here’s How A Rising Dollar Impacts Stocks
The U.S. dollar hit a 4 month high last week from concern over potentially faster interest rate hikes to control inflation as oil exceeded $70 per barrel and the lowest unemployment since 2000 was reported. If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, it may be useful to know how U.S. equities moved historically in times when the…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Here’s Why Mid-Caps Matter As The Dollar Drops
The S&P 500 just posted its best January since 1997, and also had its highest measured optimism, a 6.6% risk premium, since October 2015. Whether history repeats itself is yet to be seen, but just a few days after that high risk premium, the stock market topped on Nov. 3, 2015. By December investors saw the…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Small Caps Need No Style To Accelerate With GDP
The first estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter is set to be released this Friday and the median forecast is 3.0% according to MarketWatch, which if met or exceeded will be the first time 3 consecutive quarters to show at least 3% growth since the first quarter of 2005. While this is supportive…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Why Cutting OPEC Supply From Highest to Higher Still Hurts
After OPEC agreed to an oil output cut in Algiers on Sep. 29, they increased supply by 230 kb/d to a record 33.83 mb/d in October according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Supply from Iraq reached the highest level ever and Iran pushed flows to a pre-sanctions rate of 3.72 mb/d. Now OPEC supply has…
- Categories Commodities
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