At the headline level, it was a rather subdued month for commodities. The S&P GSCI gained 2.5%, taking YTD performance to 26.0%. While the S&P GSCI’s upward momentum attenuated, high dispersion in the performance of single commodities continued, albeit with reversals among the leaders and laggards. Most of the grains sagged to the bottom of…
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Several commodities made new all-time highs, as the global economy reflated, consumer confidence hit pre-pandemic highs, and housing prices in the U.S. jumped the most in 15 years. The S&P GSCI continued to perform well, rising 8.2% for the month to start the second quarter, following a strong 13.5% in the first quarter. Most commodities…
The S&P GSCI will commemorate its 30th anniversary in April 2021 following one of the better quarterly performances in its history. Despite giving up some of its recent gains in March, the S&P GSCI rose 13.5% in Q1 2021. A robust, if uneven, post-pandemic recovery in economic activity, ongoing supply dislocations, and the global push…
The broad commodities were tepid in November. The S&P GSCI was flat for the month and up 9.9% YTD. The Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) was down 2.1% in November and up 4.5% YTD. Gains were driven by the energy complex, while both precious metals and industrial metals detracted from headline performance. The S&P GSCI…
Notwithstanding the recent correction associated with renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China, a strong start to the year for global equity and commodities markets suggests a strong macroeconomic backdrop and a high risk appetite among investors. However, when drilling down into the performance of individual commodities sectors, it is clear that the situation…
The unintended consequences of OPEC’s policy (in summer of 2014) of flooding the market with oil to lower prices and gain market share are starting to show. It seems they failed to realize increasing the price by cutting back supply wouldn’t work with high U.S. inventories. The spare capacity of OPEC does not matter for…
After OPEC agreed to an oil output cut in Algiers on Sep. 29, they increased supply by 230 kb/d to a record 33.83 mb/d in October according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Supply from Iraq reached the highest level ever and Iran pushed flows to a pre-sanctions rate of 3.72 mb/d. Now OPEC supply has…
(“Excess Return” does not mean any additional return on the ETF’ s performance) is a footnote in an ETF provider’s investment objective about an ETF that tracks the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Excess Return. That disclaimer is true but never explains what excess return means in terms of additional performance. After all, excess means more, and…
The S&P GSCI (WTI) Crude Oil posted a 3-day gain of 14.4% ending Feb. 17, 2016. This is the biggest 3-day gain in about 6 months for the index, and gains of this magnitude have only happened near oil bottoms. After the index hit its lowest since Nov 4, 2003, on Jan. 20, 2016, it capitulated,…
In May 2014, the new deal Gazprom signed to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is about the amount NY state uses annually, of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years changed the world more than anyone may have anticipated. It’s not just because it took 10 years to negotiate…
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