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Tag Archives: currency

Jun 1, 2023

Hedging Debt Ceiling Drama with the S&P GSCI SOFR and S&P GSCI Gold

The debt ceiling debate in Washington appears to be nearing an end. According to the U.S. Treasury, Congress has “always acted when called upon” and markets will look for them to do so for the 79th time this month. By index rule, all commodities in the S&P GSCI are traded in U.S. dollars, so the…

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Jan 18, 2021

Unsung Stories of 2020

Early in 2020, global stock markets acted in concert during the sell-off, bottoming out around the world in late March. However, the extent to which different markets declined, and the strength of the subsequent recovery, differed significantly around the world. With 2020 now in hindsight, S&P DJI’s range of global equity indices tell a tale…

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Jun 29, 2018

Mexican Currency and Elections

General elections (president, senate, and chamber of deputies) are around the corner. The eyes of every Mexican and many people around the globe are on the Mexico-Brazil match of the World Cup—wait, that is another story. Nobody knows what the outcome of the elections will be. We have seen different events where the polls were…

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Jan 5, 2016

The S&P 500’s Flat Year

By now we are all painfully aware that the U.S. equity market was essentially flat in 2015.  The S&P 500’s total return was 1.38%, all of which was a function of dividend income — the index’s price return was -0.73%.  Other large-cap averages were in the same ballpark — the Dow Industrials, e.g., logged a total…

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Feb 16, 2015

Currency Wars: Pandering to Debase

So far this year, we have seen a ravenous interest from U.S. investors in currency-hedged equity exposure.  Currency risks have increased; currency volatility is on the up: The reasons behind these trends can be understood in part via the nature of human psychology and power, and the reality of politics. Consider yourself, for a brief…

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Feb 4, 2014

The New Fed! Yellen’ About Commodities

As we all know by now, Ben Bernanke is gone. He was focused on not having a depression on his watch so he pulled out all kinds of never-before-tried policy tools. Consequently, Janet Yellen will have to cope with the unintended consequences of QE — namely big unrealized losses in the Fed’s bond portfolio.  Recently, I had…

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Nov 8, 2013

The Fed’s QE Dilemma

The US does not have any measurable inflation pressure now nor has it had any over the last 20 years.  The core personal consumption price index, used as the benchmark for inflation by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been in the 1.25% to 2.5% zone since 1994, averaging about 1.75% for the last 20 years,…

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