The US stock market has delivered an average annual return of around 10% since 1926.[1] But short-term results may vary, and in any given period stock returns can be positive, negative, or flat. When setting expectations, it’s helpful for investors saving for retirement to see the range of outcomes experienced historically. For example, how often Read more […]
While many investors appear to believe that winners persist over time, the most recent S&P Persistence Scorecard underscores the well-known disclaimer that “past performance is no guarantee of future results”: irrespective of asset class or style focus, few fund managers consistently outperformed their peers. Some market participants believe that active managers with successful track records Read more […]
We recently published the 10-year anniversary edition of the paper “A Tale of Two Small-Cap Benchmarks,” which gives insight into why the S&P SmallCap 600® outperformed the Russell 2000, historically.[1] Our latest paper also showed that, in the period from Dec. 31, 2002, to Dec. 31, 2018, profitable companies typically outperformed unprofitable companies in the Read more […]
Over the 15-year period ending March 31, 2019, the biggest 25% of active large-cap equity funds managed about 90% of all the assets under management (AUM) held in active large-cap equity funds. This may suggest that investors’ fund selections skew toward larger funds. But is bigger always better? This topic has been widely debated: although Read more […]
S&P DJI’s Mid-Year 2019 Persistence Scorecard may offer a hint of encouragement for active fund managers. Performance persistence, measured over the three-year period ending March 2019, rose from prior periods. Among the domestic equity funds that were in the top quartile as of March 2017, 11.36% were able to go on and maintain their top-quartile Read more […]
S&P Dow Jones Indices’ recent paper “The S&P MidCap 400®: Outperformance and Potential Applications” shows that mid-cap stocks have often been overlooked in favor of other size ranges in investment practice and in academic literature. This is despite the fact that the S&P MidCap 400 has outperformed the S&P 500® and the S&P SmallCap 600® Read more […]
The performance of U.S. equity factors during Q2 was lackluster, with most underperforming the S&P 500, as seen in Exhibit 1. While Minimum Volatility and Low Volatility were notable exceptions, Value, Quality, High Beta, and Momentum all lagged the benchmark – in large part because of their tilt toward smaller companies. Since most factor indices Read more […]
In investing, risk and return are two sides of the same coin; the expected returns of an asset must be accompanied by variation or uncertainty around the outcome of those returns. All else equal, higher-risk assets should be compensated, on average, by higher returns. The same philosophy applies to performance evaluation. The performance of both Read more […]
After four consecutive months of gains by the S&P 500®, the U.S. equity market broadly declined in May. The S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400®, and S&P SmallCap 600® declined 6.6%, 8.1%, and 8.9%, respectively. The primary catalyst was the renewed trade tension between the U.S. and China, which reversed course from the optimism coming out Read more […]
Although there seems to be more research on economic forecast and market analysis than manager selection, selecting investment managers is just as challenging as direct investing and requires considerable experience and expertise. In this blog, we investigate the return distribution of fixed income and equity funds to highlight the challenge of successfully selecting outperforming active Read more […]
