Tag Archives: economy
A Conundrum in a Different Key
Volatility, dispersion, and correlation are elements of what we’ve elsewhere characterized as The Active Manager’s Conundrum. Active managers should prefer: Low volatility, which is typically associated with higher returns High dispersion, which means a larger payoff for correct stock selections High correlation, which reduces the opportunity cost of a concentrated portfolio The conundrum arises because…
- Categories S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy, Thematics
- Other Tags
- Categories
- S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy, Thematics
- Other Tags
Recession Chatter
Inspired, or worried, by the stock market there is more and more talk of a recession in 2019. To look past the usual comment that the stock market predicted nine of the last five recessions, a short list of positive and negative signals: Why There Won’t be an Early Recession Economy has momentum, growing faster…
- Categories Blitzer's Insights, Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Other Tags
- Categories
- Blitzer's Insights, Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Other Tags
The Fed’s QE Dilemma
The US does not have any measurable inflation pressure now nor has it had any over the last 20 years. The core personal consumption price index, used as the benchmark for inflation by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been in the 1.25% to 2.5% zone since 1994, averaging about 1.75% for the last 20 years,…
- Categories Equities, Fixed Income
- Other Tags
- Categories
- Equities, Fixed Income
- Other Tags
Keeping Up With Contango’s Twist
As mentioned in an article today in the Wall Street Journal, there may be a shift taking place in the commodities markets. In simple terms, there may be more predominant shortages of commodities. Generally as inventories are abundant, there are higher storage costs, which reduce returns from a condition called contango where the longer-dated contracts…
- Categories Commodities, Strategy
- Other Tags
- Categories
- Commodities, Strategy
- Other Tags