Bluford Putnam
Managing Director and Chief Economist, CME Group
Food Price Inflation and El Nino Possibility
Food price inflation is increasing sharply in the US. Only last December 2013, food prices were just 1.05% higher than the previous December. As of May 2014, food price inflation was running at 2.46% (year over year) and possibly heading above 4% by late 2014 or early 2015. Now, the Federal Reserve (Fed) prefers to…
Examining Emerging Market FX Contagion: It was all about Relative Risk-adjusted Performance
A large number of emerging markets currencies declined en masse during the period from 30 April 2013 through 31 January 2014, with many observers applying the moniker of contagion. Over the whole period many emerging market currencies were clustered in the range of losing between 9% and 22% of their value against the US dollar,…
- Categories Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Tags Blut Putnam, CME, Economic Data
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- Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
The Shrinking US Federal Budget Deficit
The US federal budget has a reasonable probability (our base case scenario) of reaching operational balance – revenues equal expenses excluding interest expense – by FY2015. This is an amazing turnaround and it means that budget deficit is now shrinking faster, meaning reduced supply of US Treasuries, even as the Federal Reserve tapers its quantitative…
- Categories Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Tags Economic Update
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- Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
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- Economic Update
US Economy Finished 2013 Healthier than Ever
The US economy finished 2013 healthier than it has been since the depths of the financial recession in 2008 and 2009. There were a number of milestones in 2013; many have not been fully appreciated. First, the US energy production boom has probably adding some 0.5% annually to US real GDP. US crude oil production…
- Categories Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
- Tags Economic Update, Fed, GDP, U.S. economy
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- Commodities, Equities, Fixed Income, S&P 500 & DJIA
The Fed’s QE Dilemma
The US does not have any measurable inflation pressure now nor has it had any over the last 20 years. The core personal consumption price index, used as the benchmark for inflation by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has been in the 1.25% to 2.5% zone since 1994, averaging about 1.75% for the last 20 years,…
- Categories Equities, Fixed Income
- Tags bond, currency, economy, Fed, inflation, interest rates, U.S. Equity Market
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- Equities, Fixed Income
US Energy Revolution’s Impact on Trade Flows
The substantial increase in the supply of energy from the United States is dramatically affecting US trade flows. US crude oil production has increased about 29% and natural gas production has grown 33% since 2005. To analyze the impact on trade flows, we must first examine what has happened to US energy consumption. Energy consumption…
- Categories Commodities
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- Commodities
US Energy Production & Its Growth Dividend
The substantial increase in the supply of energy from the United States is providing the US with an economic growth dividend. Since 2005, which we use as our base year since it roughly represents the year before the energy revolution in the US started, crude oil production in the US has increased 29% and natural…
- Categories Commodities
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- Commodities