Tag Archives: dispersion-correlation map
Coronaviral Correlations
Mea culpa: Roughly a month ago I used a dispersion-correlation map to describe how index dynamics can illuminate market movements. In particular, I reported that since high dispersion seems to be a necessary condition for a bear market, and S&P 500 dispersion levels at the end of February were far below those prevailing in past…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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The Most Dangerous Words
The four most dangerous words in investing are “This time it’s different.” – Sir John Templeton As investors ponder the ultimate extent of the coronavirus epidemic, this week’s equity market declines are of natural concern to every asset owner. The obvious question, after near-record point drops in major indices yesterday and today, is how much…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Not Melting Yet
Despite the hovering cloud of geopolitical menace as we entered 2019, the U.S. equity market enjoyed an almost seamless rise through the first four months of the year. May’s retreat reacquainted investors with volatility and served as a reminder that the market is near all-time highs, having enjoyed a more or less sustained increase for…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Volatile but Not Necessarily Disastrous
In 2018, the S&P 500 declined for the first time in 10 years. The year’s 4% decline is obviously de minimis compared to 2008’s 37% plunge, though investors may feel it more keenly since the fourth quarter’s 14% decline erased what had been a profitable year. Nonetheless, the risk landscape changed dramatically in 2018 compared…
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Breaking Down Volatility
“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” – Sherlock Holmes (in “The Adventure of the Copper Beeches”) Despite yesterday’s hand wringing loss for equity markets— the S&P 500 dropped 3.3%—the index is still up 5.8% year to date 2018. Nevertheless, losing in one day a third of what the equity market…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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No Longer Calm but Not Chaotic
Although market volatility has retreated somewhat since the spike in early February, it has remained elevated. In the last 30 trading sessions, the S&P 500 moved by more than 1% (in either direction) 14 times. VOLATILITY FOR S&P 500 (21-Day Rolling) Volatility manifests itself in both dispersion (a measure of the magnitude of differences among…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Vectors of Volatility
Risk is once again part of investors’ vocabulary. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 lost a total of 6%, made all the more jarring by the practically straight line rise in most of 2018 prior to the losses. Volatility has, of course, ticked up, but in the context of the broader 27 year history, not…
- Categories Equities
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2017…Among the Sleepiest of Years
If 2016 was unremarkable, 2017 was downright sleepy…at least as far as equity markets were concerned. In 2017, the S&P 500 notched the lowest level of volatility in 27 years. Both dispersion and correlations were among the lowest levels in the same period. This is in spite of a year that was far from lacking…
- Categories Equities, Uncategorized
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Valuations Are High but Dispersion Is Low
“Stocks Have Froth but No Bubble,” in today’s Wall Street Journal argues that while stocks are sitting at the highest valuations seen in many years, the market is not in a bubble. Despite similarities to early 2000 by some measures, other distinguishing features of trading bubbles (such as high trading volume and high leverage) are…
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Remarkably Unremarkable
In geopolitical terms 2016 was a tumultuous year. From the outcome of the Brexit referendum to the surprising conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, 2016 was a year of political surprises. The markets, braced or not, reacted differently in each case. We saw heightened correlation in the aftermath of Brexit and observed higher dispersion immediately…
- Categories Equities, Uncategorized
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