Tag Archives: US

Observing a Regime Change

In politics, “regime change” denotes the replacement of one governmental structure with another; in economics, we use the same term to indicate a shift in the interactions of various parts of the economic or financial system. Political regime changes are easy to identify (after all, a military coup is hard to miss).  Defining when an Read more […]

The Darkest Hour

“It is always darkest just before the Day dawneth” -Thomas Fuller The bull market is over.  After 11 years of impressive and relatively steady gains, last week the S&P 500® slid into bear market territory, marking the end of the glory of the 2010s and the start of a new regime.  Volatility is back with Read more […]

A Changing Stride for an Ageing Bull

  Taking a cue from Frank Sinatra, the S&P 500® was riding high in April, shot down in May, and got back on top in June.  But the current bull run is feeling its age, and we may be witnessing a change in its stride.  Coming into the end of the quarter (all figures are Read more […]

Global Inflation Beta

It is a familiar concept that commodities have provided inflation protection as discussed in a recent post about a discussion I had with Bluford Putnam, Managing Director and Chief Economist, of our partner, CME Group, to discuss why inflation is likely to appear this year. I have also discussed how much inflation protection has been provided in a special video Read more […]