Tag Archives: mean reversion
Making a Virtue of Necessity
When the market declines by nearly 24%, as the S&P 500® did in the first nine months of 2022, investors typically lick their wounds and wonder what comes next. Spoiler alert: I don’t know. But there are ample historical data to explore amidst our befuddlement. First, the bad news: Exhibit 1 shows that there is…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Patience Is a Virtue
With the first half of 2022 in the books, commentators have noted that this year’s -20.0% total return for the S&P 500® is the worst January-June result in more than 50 years. Painful as the first six months were, what might they tell us about the rest of the year? History gives us both bad…
- Categories Equities
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A new volatility regime? VIX® don’t think so!
Global equity markets experienced a challenging February. A U.S.-led selloff triggered a spike in volatility; the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) recorded its largest ever daily increase on February 5 to reach its highest level since August 2015. But is higher volatility here to stay? Towards the end of last year, we published a paper –…
The Commodity Flip NOT Flop Of 2014
Six months ago, commodities looked like they were on the brink of a comeback. The S&P GSCI Total Return gained 7.4% YTD through June 20 at its high. Back then, almost a record number of commodities, 12, were in backwardation, reflecting shortages in Brent Crude, Cocoa, Copper, Corn, Cotton, WTI Crude Oil, Feeder Cattle, Gold, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Soybeans and Unleaded…
- Categories Commodities
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- Commodities
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