The U.S. equities market had a wild start in 2020. Following the March 2020 sell-off, the S&P 500® posted its largest monthly gain (12.8%) since 1987. Meanwhile, VIX® went from its long-term median to an all-time high within a month before it settled around 30. One thing that has been debated lately is whether VIX,…
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How can VIX data help us understand the current market environment? S&P DJI’s Tim Edwards explores what recent historical highs for VIX could mean for equity and commodity markets moving forward. Get the latest Risk & Volatility dashboard on Indexology: https://spdji.com/indexology/risk-management/risk-volatility-dashboard
Recently, I read a comment that suggested we skip 2020 altogether. This new decade has not really started well—if only we could jump straight to 2021. Amid the overwhelming impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health and on the economy, perhaps what resonates best is that “this too will pass.” U.S. equities, which serve…
Markets are down over 20%, COVID-19 is a global pandemic, negative global growth is looming—all of that just in the first 20 days of March! During same time period, VIX rose 65%, while the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index jumped 175%. With a long-term beta of 0.7 to spot, a question might be—why did…
Since mid-February, the market has turned sharply down in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The S&P 500® has fallen about 32% from its peak this year. Equity volatility shot up, as VIX® went from historical lows to the 70-80 range, which was last seen in November 2008. The 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield reached 0.32%…
On February 19th, the S&P 500® closed at an all-time high of 3386; last night, exactly one month later it closed at 2409, a 29% decline from the high. Let’s take a moment to reflect on what’s happened over the last month. We should first start by putting the decline into historical context. The peak-to-trough…
Volatility – it is sometimes said – takes the elevator up but takes the stairs down. Like seismic activity, volatility can rise precipitously, but tends to decay more slowly; aftershocks and tremors continue to roil markets after any major repricing occurs. The practical consequence is that, once the markets become volatile, they tend to remain…
The fall in equity market values since February’s peak has been sudden and dramatic. During this period, the equity markets have functioned well at their primary task of facilitating price discovery at a time when values were changing rapidly. Equity investors who wanted to trade have been able to trade. (Whether they were wise to…
Six minutes after trading began on the New York Stock Exchange on March 9, 2020, the S&P 500® plummeted 7% and market-wide circuit breakers kicked in for the first time since the stock market crash of Oct. 27, 1997. However, the indices fell again later in the week and triggered another circuit breaker on Thursday,…
Backwardation is incredibly uncommon in the VIX® futures curve. While the reason behind this term structure is not perfectly understood, the conclusion is clear: long and hold does not work for VIX futures, as the roll cost burns. There are different ways to measure VIX futures backwardation: by using the relationship between the VIX level…
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