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Erik Norland

Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group

Erik Norland serves as Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group. He is responsible for generating economic analysis on global financial markets by identifying emerging trends, evaluating economic factors and forecasting their impact on CME Group and its customers. He also is one of CME Group’s spokespeople on global economic, financial and geopolitical conditions.
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Sep 21, 2016

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence…

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Sep 12, 2016

Dividend Volatility and Correlations

Equity markets are notoriously volatile, at least when compared to fixed income. Dividend payments, by contrast, while not fixed like many bond coupons, offer  market participants a much less volatile and more fixed income-like risk and return profile.  For the 25 years from 1990 to 2015, the annual variation in S&P 500® dividend points has…

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Aug 30, 2016

A Closer Look at Payout Ratios and Earnings

Beyond the growth in nominal GDP, the other two macro-factors that may influence the returns of the S&P 500® Dividends Index: payout ratios and corporate earnings. When corporations make profits, they have a choice: They can either reward shareholders or they can retain and reinvest the earnings.  While some companies, notably fast-growing technology firms, opt…

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Aug 25, 2016

A simple model of aggregate dividend growth

Dividends are getting more and more into the spotlight as overall corporate earnings growth continues to face many challenges in a low inflation and relatively slowly growing world.  And, a U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield of sub-2% certainly adds interest to the dividends that can be earned from S&P 500® companies.  And, dividends may also…

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