Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply. Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence…
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Equity markets are notoriously volatile, at least when compared to fixed income. Dividend payments, by contrast, while not fixed like many bond coupons, offer market participants a much less volatile and more fixed income-like risk and return profile. For the 25 years from 1990 to 2015, the annual variation in S&P 500® dividend points has…
It’s not just because it took 10 years to negotiate with China or is worth $400 billion, but the new deal Gazprom signed to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is about the amount NY state uses annually, of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years may be a major game changer…
A large number of emerging markets currencies declined en masse during the period from 30 April 2013 through 31 January 2014, with many observers applying the moniker of contagion. Over the whole period many emerging market currencies were clustered in the range of losing between 9% and 22% of their value against the US dollar,…
It is a familiar concept that commodities have provided inflation protection as discussed in a recent post about a discussion I had with Bluford Putnam, Managing Director and Chief Economist, of our partner, CME Group, to discuss why inflation is likely to appear this year. I have also discussed how much inflation protection has been provided in a special video…
As mentioned in my last post, logistics and technology are the two key factors in propelling commodities from local markets to global markets. The U.S. is now expected to be the biggest producer of natural gas in 2013, so what does that mean for the residents? Will gas bills be cheaper? Will there be a…
What drives the success of some index commodities like Brent Crude Oil or Milling Wheat to become global benchmarks? Can the energy revolution in the U.S. change the way the world views benchmarks such as WTI Crude Oil or Natural Gas? To find out the answers, we recently had the special opportunity to interview Gary Morsches,…
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