Tag Archives: Correlations
Stock Pickers: Hope Springs Eternal
The Wall Street Journal recently quoted several active managers who claim that “conditions for stock picking are improving”. Their rationale is that declining correlations among stocks in the S&P 500 have made it easier for active managers to select stocks based on fundamental analysis. We have heard this argument before, most notably in 2014 when,…
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Not Melting Yet
Despite the hovering cloud of geopolitical menace as we entered 2019, the U.S. equity market enjoyed an almost seamless rise through the first four months of the year. May’s retreat reacquainted investors with volatility and served as a reminder that the market is near all-time highs, having enjoyed a more or less sustained increase for…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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A Little Bit of Low Vol Can Go a Long Way
The fourth quarter of 2018 was pretty turbulent for global equities. Volatility and correlations rose, the majority of the S&P Global BMI’s 48 country constituents declined by double digits, recent darlings among factor strategies (momentum and growth) lagged, and the S&P 500’s 13.52% quarterly plunge left the benchmark with its first calendar-year loss in a…
Volatile but Not Necessarily Disastrous
In 2018, the S&P 500 declined for the first time in 10 years. The year’s 4% decline is obviously de minimis compared to 2008’s 37% plunge, though investors may feel it more keenly since the fourth quarter’s 14% decline erased what had been a profitable year. Nonetheless, the risk landscape changed dramatically in 2018 compared…
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Breaking Down Volatility
“Data! Data! Data!” he cried impatiently. “I can’t make bricks without clay.” – Sherlock Holmes (in “The Adventure of the Copper Beeches”) Despite yesterday’s hand wringing loss for equity markets— the S&P 500 dropped 3.3%—the index is still up 5.8% year to date 2018. Nevertheless, losing in one day a third of what the equity market…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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No Longer Calm but Not Chaotic
Although market volatility has retreated somewhat since the spike in early February, it has remained elevated. In the last 30 trading sessions, the S&P 500 moved by more than 1% (in either direction) 14 times. VOLATILITY FOR S&P 500 (21-Day Rolling) Volatility manifests itself in both dispersion (a measure of the magnitude of differences among…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Vectors of Volatility
Risk is once again part of investors’ vocabulary. Through yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 lost a total of 6%, made all the more jarring by the practically straight line rise in most of 2018 prior to the losses. Volatility has, of course, ticked up, but in the context of the broader 27 year history, not…
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2017…Among the Sleepiest of Years
If 2016 was unremarkable, 2017 was downright sleepy…at least as far as equity markets were concerned. In 2017, the S&P 500 notched the lowest level of volatility in 27 years. Both dispersion and correlations were among the lowest levels in the same period. This is in spite of a year that was far from lacking…
- Categories Equities, Uncategorized
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2017, 2018, Active, active management, active performance, Active vs. Passive, correlation, dispersion, dispersion-correlation map, equities, Equity, Fei Mei Chan, index dynamics, Index Investment Strategy, institutional investor, Passive, S&P 500, S&P Europe 350, S&P Pan Asia BMI, stock, volatility
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- Equities, Uncategorized
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- 2017, 2018, Active, active management, active performance, Active vs. Passive, correlation, dispersion, dispersion-correlation map, equities, Equity, Fei Mei Chan, index dynamics, Index Investment Strategy, institutional investor, Passive, S&P 500, S&P Europe 350, S&P Pan Asia BMI, stock, volatility
2017: A Selection of Highlights
As we rapidly approach Christmas and New Year (not to mention year-end evaluations) it seems fitting to reflect on what happened in 2017. We will publish our regional month-end dashboards on December 29 (interested parties may sign up here). Before then, here are a few highlights using data as of December 15. Volatility was historically…
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Divining Brexit
The markets’ view of the pending British referendum on EU membership displays the hallmarks of a low probability, high impact event. Correlations, and volatility expectations, are the key indicators. When macroeconomic risk is dominant, as a select few narratives come to preoccupy investors, correlations increase. For example, in August and September 2015, markets worldwide were roiled…
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