While everyone has been concerned about the inverted yield curve, the CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX) has been under the 21-trading-day realized volatility of the S&P 500 since Aug. 16, 2019. Since volatility traders care not only about what is expected but also what actually transpired, the spread between implied volatility and realized volatility is one Read more […]
Global equity markets experienced a challenging February. A U.S.-led selloff triggered a spike in volatility; the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) recorded its largest ever daily increase on February 5 to reach its highest level since August 2015. But is higher volatility here to stay? Towards the end of last year, we published a paper – Read more […]
The investment community routinely uses historical realized volatility as an indicator of future volatility. One prominent example of this is the construction of ranking-based, low volatility equity strategies where realized volatility is used to form low volatility portfolios. Can the realized volatility of an asset indicate its future volatility? We extend the low volatility analysis Read more […]
As we rapidly approach Christmas and New Year (not to mention year-end evaluations) it seems fitting to reflect on what happened in 2017. We will publish our regional month-end dashboards on December 29 (interested parties may sign up here). Before then, here are a few highlights using data as of December 15. Volatility was historically Read more […]
VIX® closed last night at 11.33. What, if anything, does that mean? We recently published a research paper, together with a more digestible practitioner’s guide, that provides a method for converting a given VIX level into an expectation for S&P 500® volatility over the next 30 days. Exhibit 1 shows that these estimates have provided Read more […]
No other recent presidential elections have been as divided as this year’s. As the objectivity and credibility regarding poll numbers and media coverage of the candidates are being questioned, the U.S. economy and the capital market are facing an unusual level of political risk. Market participants may seek various tools to hedge the downside risk, Read more […]