The energy fundamentals, helped by Hurricane Harvey, are now in place for solid rebalancing and for potentially continued strong performance. Metals have reflected bullish sentiment but have recently been hindered by Chinese growth and credit concerns. Agriculture has been well oversupplied on better than expected weather and from improving farming technologies. In September, three of Read more […]
The S&P GSCI Energy Total Return gained 8.1% in July, the most for a July in 13 years, led by petroleum that was up 9.2%. Finally the fundamentals may be showing the oil market is starting to rebalance with the rest of the commodities. The S&P GSCI Total Return had its best month this year, gaining Read more […]
Commodities just had their worst start in seven years. The S&P GSCI Total Return lost 10.2% year-to-date (YTD) ending June 30, 2017, logging its worst first half (H1) performance since the first six months of 2010 when it lost 11.2%. However, it’s not the bloodbath it may seem to be. Half, or 12 of the Read more […]
Energy is back in a bear market now led by oil’s slide mainly due to rising output from Libya and Nigeria, two OPEC members exempt from cutting supply. The S&P GSCI Energy Total Return is on pace for its worst quarter since the fourth quarter of 2015 losing -13.4% quarter-to-date (through June 19, 2017.) This is driven Read more […]
No single sector dominated commodity performance in May, which means the supply-side is currently more potent than macro factors like global aggregate demand, the dollar, interest rates or inflation. Each commodity is being driven by something in its own supply/demand model, mostly unrelated to one another. That is not just lowering the intra-commodity correlation that can create buying Read more […]
Since the U.S. election, a degree of optimism over potential business-friendly legislation – ranging from tax reform to infrastructure spending – has played a significant part in sending benchmarks such as the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. Whether this optimism will be justified by actual legislation, of course, is a different issue. At a minimum, recent Read more […]
Commodities have continued their slump in April with the S&P GSCI Total Return losing 2.1% and Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) Total Return losing 1.7% for year to date performance of -7.1% and -3.6%, respectively. Only 2 of 5 sectors and 7 of 24 commodities were positive in April. In the S&P GSCI, livestock gained Read more […]
Although many analysts anticipated U.S. oil producers would fill the gap from production cuts by OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, not many probably guessed Brent would have its second worst Q1 in history, losing 7.6%, after the implementation of the production cuts. According to the Information Energy Agency (IEA,) the U.S. saw a triple surge in Read more […]
Today “oil jumps to a nearly 3-week high as output cuts take hold” as March West Texas Intermediate crude CLH7, +1.82% rose $1.03, or 2%, to settle at $53.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange—the highest settlement since Jan. 6. The S&P GSCI Crude Oil (Spot Return) is now positive in 2017 through Jan. 26, up Read more […]
The Dow Jones Commodity Index and S&P GSCI total return indices gained 9.1% and 10.1%, respectively, in April. For the S&P GSCI, it was the best month in a year, and the second best April ever in history since 1970, only after last year’s April, when it gained 11.1%. Further, the S&P GSCI is up 15.5% since Feb Read more […]
