The headline S&P GSCI rose 4.9% in January, as the industrial portion of the global economy continued to bounce back from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns in 2020, and the prices of many agricultural commodities spiked higher on the back of record demand from Asia and the growing risk of grain…
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When discussing global economic recoveries, China is usually at the forefront of the conversation. As of Nov. 16, 2020, metal commodities with an industrial focus were the outperformers YTD. China is the world’s top industrial metal destination. Exhibit 1 shows the top 10 performing commodities tracked by S&P DJI. Seven metal commodities made it to…
COVID-19 continued to wreak havoc across commodities markets in April. The S&P GSCI fell 9.67% in April and 47.92% YTD. Economic data continued to weaken into uncharted territory. Supply chains crucial to the flow of commodities from extraction to consumption experienced a sudden shut off and demand collapsed. Energy and agriculture underperformed, while metals offered…
Commodities markets struggled under the weight of an acceleration in trade tensions between the U.S. and China and growing evidence of a slowdown in global economic activity in August. The S&P GSCI was down 5.6% for the month but remained up 6.7% YTD. The Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) was down 2.7% in August and…
Several catalysts, including U.S. Corn Belt production issues, drove corn futures prices to a new five-year high in June 2019. Investors were net short corn in May 2019, and the short covering contributed to the break higher. Prices broke through the 2017 peak after heavy floods in the Midwest prevented farmers from planting corn in…
There was a notable reversal of fortunes across the commodities complex in May. The S&P GSCI was down 8.2% for the month but remained up 8.5% YTD. The Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) was down 3.6% in May and up 3.7% YTD, reflecting its lower energy weighting. A sharp correction in petroleum prices combined with…
It has been a noteworthy start to 2019 for commodities. The S&P GSCI was up 1.6% in March and up 15.0% YTD. The performance of the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) was more modest in March, up 0.1%, and it was up 7.5% YTD, reflecting its lower energy weighting. Petroleum prices were the standout driver…
In the context of declining commodity prices following the global financial crisis, inverse indices became popular for market participants looking to profit from negative returns. As the oil war unfolded and drove commodity prices further down, market participants took a renewed interest in using inverse indices to bet against the market. When commodities rebounded last…
If you experience your most expensive 4th of July ever, it may be from the unprecedented shortages of commodities in June. Since 1970, as far back as the S&P GSCI has data, there has never been a June with as many commodities in backwardation as in June 2014. Of 24 commodities in the S&P GSCI, 23 of which are in…
It doesn’t take a weatherman to point out the crazy weather we have experienced in the recent past. There are more severe droughts, storms, freezes and heat that many blame on climate change. The National Climate Assessment, that will drive Barack Obama’s environmental agenda, notes that average temperature in the US has increased by about 1.5F (0.8C) since 1895,…
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