Indexology^® Blog

Small caps are outperforming large caps (S&P 600 (TR) – S&P 500 (TR)) in H1 2018 by the most in eight years, since H1 2010, from growing  concerns over rising tariffs and general U.S. foreign trade policy. In the past four months, the smaller companies have outperformed larger companies by 10.1%, contributing to the 5th biggest realized small cap premium in the first half of any year in history.

The smaller cap stocks are less sensitive to international relations generally from the higher percentage of revenue generated in the U.S., though they are still impacted by sector fundamentals and the percentage of exports of foreign output since the U.S. economy is largely driven by consumer spending.  Overall, U.S. small caps in the S&P 600 generate nearly 80% of revenue domestically, whereas U.S. large caps in the S&P 500 only generate just over 70% domestically.  However, this varies by sector which can explain some of the small cap premium.

For some sectors like financials and industrials that are showing relatively large small cap premiums, the revenues generated from the U.S. are significantly higher for small caps.  For example, financials have 17% more of revenues coming domestically, driving the small caps to outperform by 11% year-to-date through Jun. 29, 2018 that has been helped by rising interest rates,  growth, inflation and the rising dollar.  Historically, financials have done best with GDP growth of any sector, rising on average 6.9% for every 1% rise in GDP growth.

Industrials, one of the sectors that may be most impacted by fears of tariff and trade, also have a relatively greater portion of revenues, 14% more, coming domestically for small caps than large caps.  The rising dollar increases the small cap industrials 84 basis points on average for every 1% dollar increase, whereas the large caps only rise 67 basis points for the same dollar move.  Also for every 100 basis point rise in interest rates, the small cap industrials have risen 8.6% on average versus just 4.8% for large cap industrials.  The result has been a 10% small cap premuim for the sector this year.

However, for some sectors like health care, consumer staples and energy, the industry fundamentals have been more powerful for the small cap outperformance than the percentage of revenues coming domestically for the small caps versus the large caps.  For example health care and consumer staples each has nearly the same percentage of revenues generated domestically as internationally but the small cap premiums have been high of 29% and 15%, respectively.  Small health care companies are outperforming large caps in health care from increased expectations for acquisition of smaller companies, stronger innovation from smaller companies and that smaller companies may be more immune to concerns about regulatory pressures in healthcare.  Also in energy, the performance between sizes has been nearly even despite the gains in oil price.  This is since oil hedging by the larger companies is more prevalent than in smaller companies, offsetting some of the gains from the rising oil and domestic tailwinds.

Additionally, consumer staples have shown a strong small cap premium despite similar portions of revenue generated domestically despite size. This seems to be driven mainly by fear of uncertainty in the market, making it the second best performing small cap sector in June.  It outperformed the more economically sensitive consumer discretionary sector in two consecutive months for the first time since July and Aug 2017, and the small cap consumer staples have been outperforming the small cap consumer discretionary by 11.2% more than the large cap consumer staples have been outperforming the large cap consumer discretionary.  This is the biggest consumer staples -discretionary differential between the sizes in a quarter since Q2 2001, and the most in 3 months since the period ending in Nov. 2015.  Some may view this as a bearish signal.

Moreover, the consumer staples rise more historically with rising rates than consumer discretionary does considering more expensive financing for consumers as they make optional purchases.  For every 100 basis points rise in rates, the small consumer staples rise on average 7.2% versus just 2% for large caps, and the consumer discretionary small caps rise 6.2% on average as compared to the 5.5% gain in the large caps on average.  The large cap consumer discretionary sector is one of the few sectors that consistent outperforms its small cap counterpart, likely helped by the purchasing power of large companies in the sector that may be adversely impacted by higher tariffs or  trade restrictions.

Lastly, in June seven of the sectors added onto their small cap premiums for total returns of 0.6% for the S&P 500, 1.1% for the S&P Small Cap 600 and 0.4% for the S&P Mid Cap 400 for the month.  This added onto the year-to date gains of 2.6% for the S&P 500, 9.4% for the S&P Small Cap 600 and 3.5% for the S&P Mid Cap 400, and again widening the small cap premium this year to the 5th biggest ever.

General elections (president, senate, and chamber of deputies) are around the corner. The eyes of every Mexican and many people around the globe are on the Mexico-Brazil match of the World Cup—wait, that is another story.

Nobody knows what the outcome of the elections will be. We have seen different events where the polls were wrong (for instance, Mexico beating Germany in the match on June 17, 2018). However, the market incorporates these expectations in many ways, one being the currency. Exhibit 1 shows how the Mexican peso performed before and after the past two elections (2006 and 2012) compared with the U.S. dollar.

We can see that before the elections, the tendency in 2012 and 2018 was similar, and after the elections in 2006 and 2012, the tendency was an appreciation of the currency. We know that the elections are not the only factor moving the Mexican peso—for example, in 2018 due to the NAFTA, it has shown a lot of volatility.

Exhibit 2 shows how the S&P/BMV Sovereign International UMS Bond Indices, which are designed to measure the performance of Mexican government securities issued outside of Mexico in U.S. dollars, performed before and after the elections.

In 2018, the elections have not been the only factor affecting the Mexican peso. The Mexican Central Bank has followed the U.S. Fed’s policy decisions and moved up the overnight interbank interest rate 50 bps to stand at 7.75%. In 2012, the rate was steady at 4.50%.

Any outcome on Sunday, June 30, 2018, will surely have an impact on Mexico. By nightfall, we may have a newly elected president, but at 9:00 am (local time) on Monday, July 2, 2018, Mexico will play against Brazil in the World Cup. Looks like attention to the news to see how the elections went will have to be shared with the match!

Small caps have materially outperformed large caps in 2018, with the S&P SmallCap 600 outpacing the S&P 500 7.80% to 2.58% between Dec. 29, 2017, and May 25, 2018.¹ Below, I highlight what I believe to be the drivers of small-cap returns this year, and why I believe the trend could continue.

Tax cuts have benefited small caps. In the three years ending December 2017, the companies in the S&P SmallCap 600 had an average effective tax rate 4.3% higher than the S&P 500.¹ Investors looking for stocks that may experience improved profitability due to US tax reform seem to have turned to the small-cap sector.

Trade tensions may favor small caps. 2018 has been a year of trade tensions, but smaller companies tend to have less overseas exposure than larger companies. S&P SmallCap 600 companies generated 78.8% of their revenues from the US compared to 70.9% for the S&P 500.² The difference was even more dramatic in the growth style box, where S&P SmallCap 600 Growth companies produced 80.6% of their revenue from the US compared to 65.1% for S&P 500 Growth companies.² The recent political tensions in Italy and Spain and the potential threats to economic growth in the eurozone may prompt investors to reduce their overseas exposure and benefit small caps relative to large caps.

The trend in earnings estimate revisions favors small stocks over large. Earnings estimate revisions have been strongest in the small-cap sector. Forward earnings estimates for the S&P SmallCap 600 have risen by more than 28% compared to 18.7% for the S&P 500 over the past six months.³

The US economy has shown relative strength. More recently, the US economy has continued to display strong growth, while economies in Europe and Asia have softened. The IHS Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI has declined from a peak of 60.6 in December 2017 to a recent low of 55.5 in May 2018, while the Nikkei Japan Manufacturing PMI has eased from a January 2018 high of 54.8 to a recent low of 52.8 in May.⁴ In contrast, the IHS Markit US Manufacturing PMI was just below its cycle high at 56.4 in May.⁴

Investors may be choosing small caps over emerging markets for their risk sleeve. Investors may  have become uneasy over emerging markets due to geopolitical tensions (the Turkish lira crisis, instability in Venezuela, and Russian sanctions, for example), a rising 10-year Treasury yield, and a firmer dollar that has rallied from its February low. The risk sleeves of portfolios may have tilted toward small caps.

Small-cap valuation has become more attractive. Some see better value in small caps as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has compressed on the S&P SmallCap 600, suggesting that small caps have cheapened in recent years. On a forward earnings basis, the S&P SmallCap 600 is currently trading at 20.1 compared to 17.0 for the S&P 500. The ratio of 1.18 is down from a peak of over 1.33 in July 2009.⁵

The technical picture is supportive. Using technical analysis can be a risky proposition, but the technical set up of the S&P SmallCap 600 looks bullish, in my view. The index has broken out of consolidation to the upside in a near textbook ascending triangle. The target of the triangle projects over 1075 based on the depth of the formation (this measure is approximate – this is an art not an exact science). Another target would be the top of a channel formed off the lows of the triangle. This is a moving target, but higher than current levels and consistent with the 1075 level.  However, the small-cap sector appears to be overbought in the near term given the Relative Strength Index was recently over 73, but pullbacks to the hold highs in the 980 area may have the potential to provide support. Old resistance levels tend to become supportive (the top of the triangle).

1 Source: Bloomberg L.P.

2 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, “ How Global are the S&P 500, the S&P Midcap 400, and the S&P Smallcap 600 Style Indices?” Feb 28, 2018.

3 Source: Bloomberg, L.P. as of May 24^, 2018

4 Source: IHS Markit

5 Source: Bloomberg, L.P. as of May 31^, 2018

The 11^th annual Responsible Investor (RI) Europe Conference, held June 5-6, 2018, showed a marked departure in ESG themes and focus from previous years. Compared with prior sessions, there was a strong shift and a coming of age in the ESG movement. For example, the title for the keynote plenary of the RI 2018 Conference was aptly called “Action Speaks Louder Than Words.”

The mindset permeating through sustainable finance policy makers, practitioners, and investors is that of action and implementation. One example that highlights this call for implementation is the lack of breakout sessions regarding ESG data, which, in previous years, has been a prevalent and frequently discussed topic. In multiple previous RI conferences, topics centered on data consistency, data coverage, and data developments were commonly found on the agenda. In fact, one panelist from an asset owner exclaimed, “Let’s stop asking for perfect or more data. The data is good enough, and we need more action. It’s the next logical step.”

What is now evident to many attendees is that the drivers for this shift in mindset and heightened sense of urgency for sustainable investing derive from the following.

1. The backdrop of a political shift signaling a retreat to nationalistic priorities, shunning global issues such as ESG. There is a sense that ESG participants need to make sustainability a real part of public discourse sooner rather than later and show how it can be a driver of sustainable economic success. Part of that sentiment stemmed from the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Accords, along with the subsequent U.S. Department of Labor memo. It became evident that time is not a luxury and that ESG participants need to get to work and show the tangible benefits of ESG.
2. Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations have been out for one year, and since the launch of the final report, hundreds of organizations have been working on disclosing climate-related financial information, and a myriad of resources are being developed to support them in the process. In May 2018, the TCFD and the Climate Disclosure Standards Board (CDSB) launched the TCFD Knowledge Hub, the first online platform dedicated to the latest resources, tools, and insights on their recommendations. Policy makers and initiative organizations have done their part and now practitioners need to start implementing.
3. The European Commission has confirmed its first four legislative proposals to spur sustainable finance in the region, covering green definitions/taxonomy, investor duties, retail investing, and benchmarks. At the 2018 conference, there were more policy makers than ever speaking as to what regulators can do to move quickly on implementing financial measures to tackle climate change. The desire is to complete as much as possible within the current political cycle in order to avoid political regime shifts that are not favorable to ESG.

In reference to the benchmark proposal of the European Commission’s legislative proposals, the topic has quietly risen up the agenda, and the European Commission has confirmed that it will use a delegated act to create a new category of benchmark. There will be two benchmarks, the first will be a conventional low-carbon benchmark aiming to decarbonize standard benchmarks by selecting stocks with lower emissions. The second benchmark will be more ambitious and will seek to meet the Paris Agreement whereby a company’s carbon savings outstrip its carbon emissions.

Another dominating theme was the recent guidance on ESG by the U.S. Department of Labor’s field assistance bulletin. Multiple panelists (including Anne Simpson, Investment Director of Sustainability at CalPERS) agreed that the memo should not be viewed as a doom and gloom scenario for ESG, but as an opportunity to incorporate more discipline, analysis, and documentation into ESG investing that will ultimately help propel it into the mainstream.

In our previous blog, we also highlighted that the Department of Labor’s bulletin serves as an opportunity for analysis-driven ESG investing that strikes the right balance between integrating ESG issues and empirical results.

“Trying to pick individual stocks is a trap. I can’t do it. Warren Buffett can, but hardly anyone else can beat the indexes over a long period of time.”

Ben Stein

The above quote is proof that Ben Stein seems to understand the merits and traits of indices and index-linked products. There is a varied range of investment strategies that are at play today that can help achieve targeted objectives. Coupled with constantly shifting market dynamics, these strategies are continuously changing as well, though some of the basics are the same—whether the strategy is active or passive, dynamic or tactical, core or satellite. Asset allocation strategies are always interesting, as they vary based on investment objectives, market dynamics, investor profile, and so on. At times, there are stock-specific strategies, or sometimes strategies are based on sectors, themes, or even factors. However, index-based strategies or investments offer the advantages of a diversified basket of stocks that is designed by an independent index provider based on a transparent, rules-based methodology. The advantage of indexing is now being further highlighted with statistics that support how active funds are being outperformed by their benchmark indices. The SPIVA® India Scorecard, which has been publishing data since 2013, displays this growing trend.

One of the areas where this trend is escalating in India is the large-cap segment. Exhibit 1 displays significant outperformance in the five-year category over the past four years. In the last two years, more than 50% of active funds underperformed the benchmark S&P BSE 100.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. Data as of year-end 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes.

This offers an opportunity to evaluate the large-cap segment using a passive strategy. The S&P BSE suite of indices offers options in this segment via the S&P BSE SENSEX, S&P BSE SENSEX 50, S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50, S&P BSE 100, and S&P BSE LargeCap. These indices provide options from choosing a core set of 30 constituents, as in the S&P BSE SENSEX, to increasing that exposure to 50 stocks in the S&P BSE SENSEX 50, to further extending to 100 with the S&P BSE 100 if the goal is more diversification. Even though they all belong to the same large-cap segment, each index displays different returns and trends based on its characteristics. Hence, for shifting asset allocation strategies, there is a complete range to choose from.

Source: Asia Index Private Limited. Data as of May 31, 2018. Index performance based on total returns. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Table is provided for illustrative purposes and reflects hypothetical historical performance. The S&P BSE SENSEX 50 was launched on Dec. 6, 2016. The S&P BSE SENSEX Next 50 was launched on Feb. 27, 2017. The S&P BSE LargeCap was launched on April 15, 2015.

The recent guidelines from the Securities Exchange Board of India have formalized the large-cap space as the top 100 stocks by market capitalization. Hence, it’s worth considering the indexing route to large-cap exposure as a low-cost, transparent, and flexible mode to achieve allocation to the large-cap segment.

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