Tag Archives: U.S. Election
A VIX for Single Stocks Is Alive and Ticking
For over 30 years, market participants have used the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX®) to gauge expectations for future volatility and measure short-term market sentiment. Today, VIX is a world-renowned measure that was linked to over USD 1 trillion in listed trading activity in 2023. However, it does not encompass all the risks in U.S. equities,…
Drill Baby Drill: Commodity Performance in U.S. Election Years
Following one of the more politically volatile months of this election year, commodity performance has delivered mixed results. The S&P GSCI Gold rallied 4.3%, while the S&P GSCI Crude Oil fell by the same amount. However, both gold and oil remained firmly up on the year, registering gains of 17.3% and 16.5%, respectively. Overall, they…
- Categories Commodities
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Biden 1, Climate Change 1.5
“Today, the Trump Administration officially left the Paris Climate Agreement. And in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it.” –Joe Biden, Nov. 4, 2020. 1 In a crowded field for “standout tweets from a U.S. president or president-elect,” for those of us who have dedicated careers to tackling sustainability challenges, this may be…
- Categories Sustainability, Thematics
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- Sustainability, Thematics
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Sectors and Electors
Markets expect elevated volatility surrounding the U.S. Presidential election, now just six weeks away. The VIX futures curve currently peaks in November, but as long ago as April a close observer could detect expectations of electoral volatility. Increased volatility may create an unusual opportunity for sector allocators. To understand why, we need to remember that…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy
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- Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy
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Remarkably Unremarkable
In geopolitical terms 2016 was a tumultuous year. From the outcome of the Brexit referendum to the surprising conclusion of the U.S. presidential election, 2016 was a year of political surprises. The markets, braced or not, reacted differently in each case. We saw heightened correlation in the aftermath of Brexit and observed higher dispersion immediately…
- Categories Equities, Uncategorized
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Back to Normal…Almost
It’s been a roller coaster week in the aftermath of the startling conclusion to the U.S. Presidential election on November 8, 2016. As recently as a week before the election, equity markets were quite calm, although volatility levels recognized the possibility of a surprise Trump victory. When that victory occurred, U.S. futures declined significantly before…
- Categories Equities, S&P 500 & DJIA
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Winners and Losers in Trump’s Electoral Surprise
Donald Trump’s unexpected success initially threatened to send the U.S. equity markets into steep decline. Yet as I write, the S&P 500 has moved very little since yesterday’s close (it is up a little), while the VIX has fallen dramatically. So why (or how) has volatility remained so low this morning when everyone expected it to…
- Categories S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy
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- S&P 500 & DJIA, Strategy
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