Tag Archives: Economic Update

The Shrinking US Federal Budget Deficit

The US federal budget has a reasonable probability (our base case scenario) of reaching operational balance – revenues equal expenses excluding interest expense – by FY2015. This is an amazing turnaround and it means that budget deficit is now shrinking faster, meaning reduced supply of US Treasuries, even as the Federal Reserve tapers its quantitative Read more […]

National Credit Default Rates Decreased in December 2013 According to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices released the latest results for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices. Data is through December 2013 S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices Press Release – January 2014

US Economy Finished 2013 Healthier than Ever

The US economy finished 2013 healthier than it has been since the depths of the financial recession in 2008 and 2009.  There were a number of milestones in 2013; many have not been fully appreciated. First, the US energy production boom has probably adding some 0.5% annually to US real GDP.  US crude oil production Read more […]