Tim Edwards

Senior Director, Index Investment Strategy
S&P Dow Jones Indices
Biography

Tim Edwards is Senior Director of Index Investment Strategy for S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI). The group provides research and commentary on the entire S&P DJI’s product set, including U.S. and global equities, commodities, fixed income, and economic indices.

Prior to joining S&P Dow Jones Indices, Tim worked at Barclays Capital, where he had global responsibility for product development of exchange-traded notes across all asset classes, covering commodities, volatility, foreign exchange, fixed income and emerging markets.

Tim holds a PhD in mathematics from University College London.

Author Archives: Tim Edwards

Winners and Losers in Trump’s Electoral Surprise

Donald Trump’s unexpected success initially threatened to send the U.S. equity markets into steep decline.  Yet as I write, the S&P 500 has moved very little since yesterday’s close (it is up a little), while the VIX has fallen dramatically. So why (or how) has volatility remained so low this morning when everyone expected it to Read more […]

VIX is holding the Trump card

Despite a narrowing election race and a deluge of earnings, the S&P 500 has not seen a daily change greater than 1% in nearly four weeks.  Realized volatility remains remarkably low.  But the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a predictive measure of future volatility that is often seen as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – has Read more […]

Risk and Active Management

Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with industry-wide comparisons made between the returns of active funds and their passive equivalents.  Studies comparing the risk of active funds are rarer, but have the potential to provide actionable insights:  at the very least, examinations of fund risk can help to evaluate the a claim that active Read more […]

The VIX is Low, But Should You Fasten Your Seatbelt?

VIX has spent the whole of August below 14, and remains – at time of writing – close to its lowest levels in two years.  But the present calm may be dependent on a short-term seasonal effect; and we are approaching the traditional period where it ends. August is traditionally a quiet month for U.S. Read more […]

Navigating Brexit

Despite some warnings from volatility gauges, the market had “priced in” a vote for remain from the UK’s population.  This has made for some dramatic headlines, and large movements since the vote to leave the EU was announced.  As the market scrambled to make sense of the political chaos, three key themes have emerged from the Read more […]

Divining Brexit

The markets’ view of the pending British referendum on EU membership displays the hallmarks of a low probability, high impact event.  Correlations, and volatility expectations, are the key indicators. When macroeconomic risk is dominant, as a select few narratives come to preoccupy investors, correlations increase.  For example, in August and September 2015, markets worldwide were roiled Read more […]

Who’s Afraid of a Carbon Tax?

As far as equity investors might experience them, the risks of a potential “carbon tax” are more easily fathomed than the rewards.  Emissions data are available for most large companies and – taking basic assumptions on the likely form of taxation – we can easily examine which market segments face the greater risks. Estimating The Impact Read more […]

Who Fuelled the Oil Bonds Bubble?

It has become popular to blame passive investors and index funds for the recent rise (and fall) in prices for U.S. high yield bonds.  The thesis – placing passive investors as the culprit – goes as follows: There have been material, positive flows into passive bond funds, at the expense of active funds. Passive bond funds Read more […]

Necessary, but not sufficient

In the popular imagination, “big business” is responsible for climate change.  In fact, corporate emissions of greenhouse gasses are a small part of the problem; it is quite possible that corporations also provide our best hope for a solution. The current reality – what we know to be true – is that governments worldwide are shortly expected to commit to Read more […]

As goes the first week, so goes …

The world’s equity markets have encountered a rocky introduction to 2016; including the worst ever start for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (against a record that stretches back to 1897) and steep falls across developed and emerging markets.  Equity markets are down more or less everywhere, and in many cases materially so. What difference does Read more […]