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Yearly Archives: 2013

Dec 31, 2013

A Battered Municipal Bond Market Enters 2014

Since the S&P Municipal Bond Index was launched in 2000 it never has had two years in a row of negative returns.  However, a new year begins with all the uncertainty and expectations of any other year.  Municipal bond funds are entering 2014 following a long string of monthly cash outflows indicating that retail investors…

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Dec 31, 2013

ETFs poised to overtake Hedge Funds in 2014

If current trends continue, 2014 will herald a significant milestone for the ETF and hedge fund industries, as the total amount of capital invested in the former threatens to overtake the latter. Hedge funds search relentlessly to deliver on a promise of alpha while their privileged investors – supplying notoriously high fees and the tactical…

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Dec 30, 2013

Commodities Countdown: Top 13 of 2013

Despite another year of flat performance from the S&P GSCI, it was a roller-coaster year with energy holding up the broad index while gold had its worst year since 1981.  Below are the top 13 stories from 2013: 13.  Risky Assets, Safe Havens or Lost Identities?   All commodities in the S&P GSCI and the DJ-UBS…

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Dec 30, 2013

Misplaced Fears and Real Worries

The charts show the twin concerns of the Fed: inflation and unemployment.  Despite fears that easy money would send inflation surging, it is quietly fading away.  The real worry is unemployment. While declining, at 7% recently it remains above any estimate of full employment.  Low inflation and low unemployment can be in conflict with one-another. …

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Dec 23, 2013

A Review of the Financial Markets in 2013

As part of its ongoing review of the financial markets in 2013, S&P Dow Jones Indices recently published four video interviews with senior index analysts that examine the drivers of market performance in 2013 and the news and events that could impact returns in 2014. Market segments discussed during these interviews include: the U.S. equity…

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Dec 20, 2013

What’s Shocking About Commodities In 2014?

As 2013 is wrapping up and we look out to 2014, there are some key questions about the drivers and opportunities in commodities in the coming year, as discussed in this interview. Below are some of the questions discussed PLUS a bonus question about metals. Q1: Jodie, let’s talk about commodity performance in 2013.  It looks…

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Dec 19, 2013

Two Dimensions of Risk

Investors have long regarded the market’s overall level of volatility as an indication of its riskiness.  The S&P 500 VIX Index, in particular, is often referred to as a “fear gauge” for U.S. equities since it tends to rise when investors are nervous and to fall when the markets are quiescent. Although S&P 500 VIX…

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Dec 19, 2013

Facebook Selling Into the S&P 500

Facebook (FB), the most-watched candidate for the S&P 500 all year, will join the index tomorrow night, December 20th , after the market closes. Once ETFs, index mutual funds and other index funds complete their buying – probably sometime next week – roughly 12% of FB’s shares will be held by indexers.  As many expected,…

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Dec 19, 2013

Eighty-one years later…

Harbouring year-end reviews and final accounts, the last weeks of December are infused with nostalgia. In this seasonal spirit, I’d like to draw your attention to an under-celebrated piece of work, completed in the year that Katharine Hepburn, Cary Grant and Shirley Temple saw their debuts on the silver screen. In 1932, Fred had not…

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Dec 17, 2013

The year in balance

The US stock market did very well in 2013, up 25% (before dividends) through December 16th, with better results than the overall economy and most other developed markets.  The one big exception is Japan where the market is up almost 47% in Yen terms, though within a percentage point of the S&P 500 when measured…

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