Indexology^® Blog

How does profitability influence risk and return in small-cap equities and why is it important to know what’s under the hood of your small-cap index S&P DJI’s Garrett Glawe, State Street Global Advisors’ Matthew Bartolini, and ValMark Advisors’ Michael McClary take a closer look at the S&P SmallCap 600.

https://youtu.be/Cx4qUqCMdzI

Value has experienced a dramatic reversal in 2022, with the S&P 500^® Value outperforming the S&P 500 Growth by 20% on a YTD basis as of May 25, 2022. Although one might expect this outperformance to be a boon for value managers, the data may indicate otherwise.

A majority of active large-cap value managers outperformed the S&P 500 Value in only 8 out of the past 20 calendar years. Seven of these eight years have something in common: Growth outperformed Value. How did the outperformance of Growth aid value managers?

Style bias enables us to answer this question. We refer to “style bias” as any systematic tendency in an actively managed portfolio. For example, some portfolios might typically tilt toward growth stocks, and we’d refer to this tilt as a growth bias. This is different from making near-term tactical allocations between growth and value. Style bias helps us disentangle these biases from genuine stock selection skill.  

Exhibit 1 shows that a majority of large-cap value managers outperformed the S&P 500 Value in 39% (31/80) of all quarters. In the quarters when the S&P 500 Growth beat the S&P 500 Value, however, the likelihood that the majority of value managers outperformed rose to 59% (26/44). When Value outperformed Growth, the odds of active outperformance for value managers fell to 14% (5/36).

As a result, the recent underperformance of Growth implies that value managers would be unable to benefit from style bias.

Another headwind has to do with the positive skewness of equity returns: in most years, only a minority of constituent stocks outperform an index, making stock selection inherently more challenging. Exhibit 2 illustrates that only 38% of the names in the S&P 500 Value have outperformed the index thus far this year, making conditions challenging for active managers, who tend to run more concentrated portfolios.

Further, the S&P 500 Value return of -5.7% is greater than the simple average of the constituent returns (-8.1%), indicating that larger value stocks have outperformed. Berkshire Hathaway Class B and Johnson & Johnson, both of which handily outperformed the index, are the largest constituents in the index with a combined weight of 6%. The outperformance of larger value names coupled with positive skewness is doubly challenging for active managers, as it is relatively more difficult for them to overweight the larger names.

Value managers have historically benefited by tilting toward Growth. But not this year. And even within the Value realm, they are not aided by the outperformance of larger names. Value investors should keep this in mind if these trends continue.

Look under the hood of an innovative, best-in-class ESG index, designed to track S&P 500 constituents with higher sustainability credentials based on exclusions and market-leading ESG scores.

Except for intermittent fasting groups or keto dieters who tend to skip it, breakfast is considered by many to be the most important meal of the day. Now, there is a reliable and publicly available benchmark for the performance of the most liquid commodities typically consumed at breakfast. The S&P GSCI Dynamic Roll Breakfast (OJ 5% Capped) is a global production-weighted index offering another example of thematic ways to look at commodities allocations within portfolios. A liquidity-based allocation to orange juice (OJ) has been incorporated into the index construction, because breakfast without OJ is like a day without sunshine. With a three-year annualized total return of 20.15%, the performance has outpaced broad equities, other asset classes and even the market standard commodities benchmark, the S&P GSCI, by 5% annualized. If breakfast commodities were its own commodities sector, it would have been the second best performing over the past three years (see Exhibit 1).

The heavy agriculture weighting of the index, at roughly 90%, is the clear main driver of performance for breakfast. Not forgetting bacon, lean hogs currently have a weight of about 10% to round out the theme. Corn and wheat make up the bulk of the index, because these two breakfast commodities are by far the most produced and consumed commodities around the world; roughly two billion tons of corn and wheat are produced each year in total. The other commodities are much smaller, and this is reflected in the current percentage weights as of the end of April (see Exhibit 2).

A growing concern among central bankers regarding food inflation serves to highlight the importance of agricultural commodities to the global economy from both a societal and environmental perspective. This new index may offer a way of gaining exposure to themes such as inflation and geopolitics. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is disrupting global food and energy supplies to an unprecedented degree. A prime example is the tightening global wheat supply picture. Ukraine is considered Europe’s breadbasket and roughly one-third of global exports of wheat comes from the Ukraine/Russia region. Wheat exports out of the Black Sea have been strained over the past few months as the conflict continues. Global wheat prices have skyrocketed, and with the high weighting in the breakfast index, wheat was an important driver in the solid performance. In response to the geopolitical tensions and persistent supply chain bottlenecks, food protectionism is returning to the fore. For example, plans by India, the world’s largest exporter of sugar, to restrict exports to prevent a surge in domestic prices could put additional pressure on global sugar supplies.

Finally, the S&P GSCI Dynamic Roll Breakfast (OJ 5% Capped) employs a flexible monthly futures rolling strategy designed to alleviate the negative impact of rolling into contango and potentially limit volatility exposure to the commodities market. With its global focus, this new thematic index demonstrates our continued efforts to bring replicable and investable commodities-based benchmarks to a public audience.

As the global green bond market continues to grow, how are indices helping investors assess greenium and the potential opportunity set? S&P DJI’s Brian Luke joins VanEck’s Bill Sokol and Phil Kirouac for a closer look at how indexing works for green bonds.

https://youtu.be/TEomyDhdG0E