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brian-luke

Brian Luke

Former Senior Director, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets, S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Jan 9, 2025

The King of the 21st Century Wears a Golden Crown

Once again, gold has taken the crown as the best-performing asset in the 21st century. From the turn of the century to year-end 2024, the S&P 500® recorded an annualized return of 7.7%, while the S&P GSCI Gold recorded 8.5% annually. While besting stocks for a quarter century, gold is still considered a safe-haven asset,…

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Aug 5, 2024

Drill Baby Drill: Commodity Performance in U.S. Election Years

Following one of the more politically volatile months of this election year, commodity performance has delivered mixed results. The S&P GSCI Gold rallied 4.3%, while the S&P GSCI Crude Oil fell by the same amount. However, both gold and oil remained firmly up on the year, registering gains of 17.3% and 16.5%, respectively. Overall, they…

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May 2, 2024

New Bitcoin Indices Doing “Yard Work” in the Spring

In Wall Street parlance, a yard refers to a billion and a buck is a million. You can overhear traders asking questions like, “how many bucks did that trade?” or, “did that company raise a yard?” The crypto space is gathering assets by the yard these days with new product launches by ETF issuers. For…

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Apr 17, 2024

Commodities Deliver Double-Digit Returns in the Face of Stubborn Inflation

Commodity markets remain on top of the asset class leader board with inflation drawing the ire of the Fed and other asset classes. The upside surprise in U.S. inflation spotlights the potential benefits of commodities as a diversification tool. The S&P GSCI, the leading indicator of broad commodity performance, has produced double-digit returns in 2024,…

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Apr 1, 2024

Energy Pumps up the S&P GSCI and Markets Go Cuckoo for Cocoa

“I think it’s from all those dog-gone cocoa beans. Hey, by the way, did you guys know that chocolate contains a property that triggers the release of endorphins? Gives one the feeling of being in love.” -Willy Wonka, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (2005) Inflation presented a direct hit to consumers at the pump, with…

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Mar 4, 2024

Food Inflation Bites into Income as Commodities March Higher

Inflation continues to impact consumers and policymakers in negative ways. Hedging through broad commodities has proven to buffer portfolio returns, with the S&P GSCI up 5.38% this year. Going into the year, expectations of Fed rate cuts and continued declines in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) pushed inflation concerns aside. Since then, markets have experienced…

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Jan 3, 2024

Twenty-First Century Fox: DJCI Gold Tops Stocks and Bonds This Century

The equity markets roared to the finish line, easily passing commodities and bonds with a 26.3% return for the S&P 500® in 2023. Much of that rally could be attributed to declining consumer price indices and favorable Federal Reserve guidance, with increased confidence in a soft landing. Declining inflation can best be observed at the…

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Dec 5, 2023

Gold Hits All-Time Highs and DJCI Silver Tops 10% in November

“Silver and gold, silver and gold, Everyone wishes for silver and gold.” -Burl Ives My all-time favorite stop-motion animation show was the 1964 TV special Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer, narrated by Burl Ives. Playing the role of Sam the Snowman, Ives sang “Silver and Gold,” paying tribute to the work of Yukon Cornelius, a prospector…

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Nov 2, 2023

Previewing the 2024 S&P GSCI Rebalance: Big Oil’s Mojo Is Back

Long-time investors in products linked to the S&P GSCI remain keenly aware of the outsized role oil has in broad commodity performance. Reviewing the projected weights of the 2024 S&P GSCI rebalance oil is expected to remain the largest commodity in the index. WTI and Brent crude oil are projected to swap positions and collectively…

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Sep 5, 2023

D-FENCE! Investigating Commodity Performance under a Defensive Fed

I love this time of year. August vacations are over, the kids are back in school and football season kicks off in the U.S. The Fed took its August “vacation” at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where Jerome Powell’s remarks singularly focused on price stability. Inflation has come down but “remains too high” and the Fed…

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