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If You’re Not in the Loans Then You’re Not Getting the Bonds

This Cold Is Hard To Catch

Asia Fixed Income: Diversifying into Chinese Bonds

U.S. Preferreds, An Option to Pick A Specialty

Bumpy Roads Ahead in European Equities

If You’re Not in the Loans Then You’re Not Getting the Bonds

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Kevin Horan

Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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There is an axiom among the capital markets desks of investment banks that goes something like this: “if you’re not in the loans then you’re not getting the bonds”.

The reasoning behind this statement is this: Other than fallen angels, the issuers of high yield debt are companies whose access to capital can be limited.  Start-up companies, whose story resonates with bankers, need to build relationships with lenders or existing companies whose line of business is highly leveraged.

For this reasoning, there is a significant amount of overlap between the issuers of leveraged loans and high yield paper. In a recent article, Invesco Fund Treads Risky Path as Major Investor in Distressed Corporate Debt, it is mentioned that Invesco PowerShares’s BKLN has major exposures to companies with weak balance sheets. However, an aspect of leveraged loans that was not developed in this article is that the loans are secured by the assets of the operating company and the terms are usually superior to those of high-yield bonds, which are generally unsecured.

Also a benefit to the senior loan structures is that loans are floating-rate instruments, which have coupon resets periodically with the prevailing benchmark for the interest rate (i.e., LIBOR).  Why is this important?  All things being equal, a rising interest rate environment will generally result in higher interest payments for those holding senior bank loans while not significantly impacting loan prices.   If or when a credit event does occur with a loan, the recovery rates on bank loans are 86%, much higher than the recovery rates secured, unsecured or subordinated bonds.

The issuers in the S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index are the same issuers in the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index. Currently the S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan 100 Index has returned 0.12% MTD and 2.20% YTD while the S&P U.S. High Yield Corporate Bond Index has returned -0.20% MTD and 4.78% YTD.

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices, data as of 11/07/2014

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

This Cold Is Hard To Catch

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Jodie Gunzberg

Managing Director, Head of U.S. Equities

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Many people are asking if we are seeing withdrawals from commodities since oil has dropped about 25% since its high in June.  While we don’t track asset flows of products based off the indices, the anecdotal answer is many view this as a buying opportunity.  The IEA predicts an acceleration of oil demand growth from non-OECD countries of 2.6% in 2015 up from 1.9% in 2014 that can be mainly attributed to Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. While lower oil prices could change this, it is more likely to cause a great divide between where the demand comes from, with proportionally more from Asia.

The next question being asked is whether the potential buying opportunity is better executed with active or passive strategies.  That depends on how much confidence you have that you can pick the winner.  Did you guess that Algeria would only secure 4 out of 31 available licenses to international companies to explore and produce? or that a local strike in Libya would take 25 kb/d off the market in an instant? or that Beijing would buy 8 million barrels of Middle East crude as Brent fell under $90/bbl? Only the foresight around situations like these- or luck- would result in proftable in alpha strategies.

In this mean reverting environment with inventories hovering closer to equilibrium than they have post the financial crisis, picking the winner is difficult.  I didn’t hear too many predictions that coffee, aluminum, cattle and nickel would be among the winners this year.

That said, last week, did you guess natural gas would be up 13.7% this week?  The headline in the WSJ is around cattle from the drought that has been driving cattle prices up about 30% this year- but it’s nothing to moo about in November. However, the return of the Polar Vortex is something to chatter about. Maybe equities are more dependent on sunshine, but not natural gas.

Earlier in the year, from Jan 9-29, the DJCI Natural Gas, increased 37.4%, and in just the first three days of that time period, 8.6% or almost 1/4 of the return was already earned. This time, natural gas bottomed on Oct. 27 and is up already 20.9% as of Nov. 6th. Again, in the first three days, 1/4 of the return was earned.

So, if you want to play the guessing game, you better pick right and ON TIME, or else you are missing out.  Many prefer to stay invested broadly to avoid the picking and timing trap- as this cold was hard to catch.

 

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Asia Fixed Income: Diversifying into Chinese Bonds

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Michele Leung

Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Global investors continue to explore investment opportunities in China onshore bond market. Chinese bonds undeniably offer higher yields than other major bond markets. As of Nov 5, 2014, the yield-to-worst of the S&P China Bond Index stood at 4.09% with a modified duration of 4.15, see Exhibit 1.

Exhibit 1: Yield Comparison

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P China Bond Index, the S&P China Government Bond Index and the S&P China Corporate Bond Index are calculated in CNY. The S&P/BGCantor U.S. Treasury Bond Index, the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index are calculated in USD. Data as of November 5, 2014. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P China Bond Index, the S&P China Government Bond Index and the S&P China Corporate Bond Index are calculated in CNY. The S&P/BGCantor U.S. Treasury Bond Index, the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index are calculated in USD. Data as of November 5, 2014. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

More importantly, investing into Chinese bonds adds diversification benefits to a portfolio through the exposure to local rate, credit and currency. According to the S&P China Bond Index, the Chinese bonds have historically exhibited low to negative correlations to U.S. bonds.

The correlation between the S&P China Government Bond Index and the S&P/BGCantor U.S. Treasury Bond Index, considering monthly returns since Dec, 2006, is 0.25. And if we look at the corporate bond sector, the correlation between the S&P China Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index is -0.15, while its correlation with the S&P U.S Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index is -0.22, see Exhibit 2.

Exhibit 2: Bond Market Correlation

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P China Corporate Bond Index is used to run the correlation with the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, in orange color. The S&P China Government Bond Index is used to run the correlation with the S&P/BGCantor U.S. Treasury Bond Index, in red color. Correlations are based on the monthly returns since December 29, 2006. Data as of November 4, 2014. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices. The S&P China Corporate Bond Index is used to run the correlation with the S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index and the S&P U.S. Issued Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index, in orange color. The S&P China Government Bond Index is used to run the correlation with the S&P/BGCantor U.S. Treasury Bond Index, in red color. Correlations are based on the monthly returns since December 29, 2006. Data as of November 4, 2014. Charts are provided for illustrative purposes.

The Chinese bond market has outperformed the U.S. treasury and corporate bond markets year-to-date as well. As of Nov 5, 2014, the S&P China Bond Index delivered a YTD total return of 10.08%.

Want to find out more about the S&P China Bond Index? Please click here.

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

U.S. Preferreds, An Option to Pick A Specialty

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Kevin Horan

Director, Fixed Income Indices

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Preferred stocks are a class of capital stock that pays dividends at a specified rate and has a preference over common stock in the payment of dividends and the liquidation of assets.

The S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index is designed to serve the investment community’s need for an investable benchmark representing the U.S. preferred stock market. The Index has currently returned a total return of 0.14% month-to-date and 13.07% year-to-date.

A 13% return in the current low rate environment is fantastic but if you delve a little deeper you can do even better.  S&P Dow Jones Indices has developed sub-indices that break-out the preferred parent index into coupon type and rating sub-indices.

Of the coupon types, the S&P U.S. Floating Rate Preferred Stock Index is outperforming the parent index with a 15.18% year-to-date.  The reason floaters have not pushed the parents return up higher is that floaters only constitute 4% of the overall index.

Rating sub-indices are equally impressive as the S&P U.S. High Yield Preferred Stock Index has returned 0.23% for the month, while the S&P U.S. Investment Grade Preferred Stock Index year-to-date has returned 15.5%.  Depending on your risk tolerance, both rating segments have provided consistent returns though the high yield sub-index has performed better over 3 and 5 year time horizons.
US Preferred Indices Return Performance 20141103

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.

Bumpy Roads Ahead in European Equities

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Tim Edwards

Managing Director, Index Investment Strategy

S&P Dow Jones Indices

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Three things typify systemic equity crises. Firstly, volatility increases. Secondly, correlations rise. And lastly, the stock market falls.

October was a difficult month for European equities. The S&P Europe 350 fell by over 3%, taking a day-to-day lead from Greek government bond prices, and with every sector and nearly every country posting a loss for the month.  A 3% loss is not unusual, nor remarkable. But the warning lights are flashing…

  • 22-day realized volatility in the S&P Europe 350 has nearly tripled since September and is currently registering a level higher than at any point in the last two years:

350 rvol

  • More worryingly, the degree to which stocks move together has risen materially; the correlation among S&P Europe 350 stocks for the month of October was also the highest for over two years. (Indeed, it is close to its highest since 2007)

350 rcor

This may be a flash in the pan – an over-reaction, perhaps, to an underwhelming package of measures unveiled by the ECB in early October, or to economic figures in Germany and France that, while disappointing, were hardly extraordinary. And Japan’s central bank has is coming to the rescue.

However, high correlations and high volatility tend to persist in the short term. And elevated levels of both lead to a highly unstable marketplace.

Don’t be surprised if there are some bigger bumps down the road.

The posts on this blog are opinions, not advice. Please read our Disclaimers.