U.S. Treasuries’ Wild Ride

The past month was a wild ride for U.S. Treasuries, and April seems to be starting out the same.  The yield of the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index closed the half-day trading session for the Good Friday holiday (April 3, 2015) at 1.86%.  The yield is at a two-month low, as rates have bounced around since the 1.81% reached on Feb. 5, 2015.  Friday’s speculation that the Fed won’t be able to raise rates anytime soon came off the back of a slowdown in job growth, as measured by the Change in Nonfarm Payroll number, which was 126,000 versus the surveyed and expected 245,000.

Prior to Friday’s trading, the yield of this index had increased by 13 bps, reaching 2%, after a 1.87% monthly low on March 24, 2015.  This low had resulted from a rally down in yield (38 bps) after the monthly peak of 2.25% on March 6, 2015.  The return of the index as of the end of March was 0.76% MTD and 3.06% YTD, while in April, the index has returned 0.66% MTD and 3.74% YTD (as of April 3, 2015).

Exhibit 1: Index Yield to Worst

YTW History of the S&P-BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index

Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC.  Data as of April 3, 2015.  Charts and tables are provided for illustrative purposes.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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