Tag Archives: oil

What Is So Super About Chinese Demand?

We have heard for many years now about the Chinese super-cycle that supported commodity prices since 1999 and we have also heard many debates about whether it has ended.  So if it has ended what now? How huge is the impact on commodity prices? That all depends on the level of inventories that result from Read more […]

Food Drives March

Commodities continue their comeback as supply shocks prevail over demand growth concerns from China. The backwardation (indicative of shortage), measured by roll yield or the excess return minus the spot return, has not only persisted from February into March but increased.  March’s roll yield of 26 basis points more than doubled February’s roll yield of Read more […]

COMMODITY COMEBACK

It is no surprise that now might be the perfect environment for brewing commodities.   The S&P GSCI was up 4.5% in February and was in backwardation for the first time in February since 2004. In 2004, the S&P GSCI returned 17.3%. 22 of 24 commodities in the S&P GSCI were positive in February. All 5 sectors were positive, led by agriculture, Read more […]

A NICKEL For Your Thoughts?

Industrial Metals are historically the most economically sensitive sector besides energy. While Chinese oil demand growth is set at 3.6% in 2014 and HSBC’s Chinese Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged down to 50.8 in November, barely above the key 50-threshold delineating expansion from contraction, according to IEA’s OMR Report, nickel is the only commodity in petroleum and industrial Read more […]

Index Investing Did NOT Spike Price; BRENT FELL

Maybe the verdict is still undecided for some, but it is hard to look at the evidence and still be questioning the idea that index investing drives underlying commodity prices.   Now that the commodity index rebalance is over and the shift between WTI and Brent is behind, we can examine the impact.  As I Read more […]

What’s Shocking About Commodities In 2014?

As 2013 is wrapping up and we look out to 2014, there are some key questions about the drivers and opportunities in commodities in the coming year, as discussed in this interview. Below are some of the questions discussed PLUS a bonus question about metals. Q1: Jodie, let’s talk about commodity performance in 2013.  It looks Read more […]

The Next Big Futures Market May Be OUT OF THIS WORLD or in CHINA

In my post about globalizing futures, technology and logistics were highlighted as key factors to expand local commodities into a global commodities.  What I failed to mention is that these same keys may unlock potential futures markets growth beyond Earth.  That may seem extraordinary but the potential is real since according to this article on Read more […]

Exchange Keys to Unlocking the Growth of Regional Commodities into Global Benchmarks

What drives the success of some index commodities like Brent Crude Oil or Milling Wheat to become global benchmarks? Can the energy revolution in the U.S. change the way the world views benchmarks such as WTI Crude Oil or Natural Gas? To find out the answers, we recently had the special opportunity to interview Gary Morsches, Read more […]

Commodities Fall at the Start of Autumn

Hear the impact of the Syrian tension on oil and why the effect on copper might be different than in historical wars. The S&P GSCI® and Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index both fell in September, returning -3.4% and -2.6%, respectively. Some highlights from the S&P GSCI® include: Energy: Despite losing 4.5% on the month, S&P Read more […]

Commodities Crystal Ball: What do the FUTURES hold?

What strategies will be the most profitable over the next 12 months?  Which spread will have the greatest opportunity? These are just a few questions we asked the audience at our S&P Dow Jones Indices 7th Annual Commodities Seminar, and we thought you may be interested in their answers. As I mentioned in a recent CNBC interview, Read more […]