Tag Archives: Fed

Rising Rates’ Silver Linings

Bond values will, definitionally, fall when interest rates rise. However, different types of bonds have differing characteristics. The chart below shows the annual performance of the S&P 500 Bond Index and the S&P/BG Cantor 7-10 US Treasury Bond Index. (The S&P/BG Cantor 7-10 US Treasury Bond Index is the treasury index most similar to the Read more […]

Speculating About the Fed’s Timing

Little new data, lots of chatter from Wall Street and no clear signals about what the Fed might do at next week’s FOMC meeting. The announcement, either no change or a rate increase, is expected on Thursday afternoon September 17th around 2 PM Washington DC time. Those looking for some hint of what this might Read more […]

Timing Gold Is A Fool’s Errand

“I don’t agree with you Jodie…..Gold is in a bear market….too early to put some money in the yellow metal….” is a comment from the article recently posted by the Economic Times asking the question, “Where do you see the gold prices making a bottom as every fundamental turns unfavorable for gold?”  We love your comments expressing your opinions Read more […]

Last Week’s Safety Trade Is Off, as Greece Charts a New Direction for Bonds

The yield-to-worst of the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index ended the week on Friday, June 19, 2015, 12 bps lower, at 2.26%.  Concerns over Greek debt financing with the European Union led investors to the safety of U.S. Treasuries.  Up to that Friday, the index had returned -1.11% MTD, recovering a bit after Read more […]

Risk On, Risk Adjusted: Retail and Institutional Money View Markets Differently

The yield-to-worst of the S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index was relatively flat for the week, closing Friday, June 12, 2015, at a 3.15%.  For the previous week, Lipper data reported positive flows into investment-grade corporate bonds (June 3, 2015), which appeared to be buying on the dip, as the index moved from a Read more […]

The Fed’s Rate Increase Is Looking Like a Game of Kick the Can

Continued lackluster U.S. economic activity right up until today’s slower personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report may have pushed rates lower during the last week of the month and into June’s start.  The yield of the S&P U.S. Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index moved lower by 8 bps during the last week of the month to Read more […]

It’s So Bad, It’s Good

The highest weekly U.S. crude oil stockpiles going back to 1982 and the highest monthly inventories back to 1930 were announced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) yesterday.  By now, the market is so oversupplied with oil in the near term that more or less supply shouldn’t matter on a daily basis. However, we are seeing the highest volatility since the Read more […]

Data Driven Decisions Replace Forward Guidance

Since the financial crisis, the Fed gave clear signals and advance warnings about shifts in monetary policy. Even the “taper tantrum” in May, 2013 was widely heralded in advance.  Early warnings will soon be a thing of the past.  Instead the Fed will watch the economic reports and will set policy at each meeting based Read more […]


If we’re talking about the worst performing months for commodities, March 2015 should be dominating the conversation. The S&P GSCI Total Return is down 9.1% month-to-date (as of 3/17/15) and is on track to post the 4th worst March in history of the index since 1970; only 2003 (-14.4%), 1980 (-14.0%) and 1974 (-11.5%) lost more. All 24 Read more […]

Higher Interest Rates: Why, When, How

Three issues surround the debate over the Fed and raising interest rates: why should interest rates be increased? When should they be raised and how can the Fed do it.  All three need to be resolved. Why The traditional description of Fed policy is “removing the punchbowl when the party gets good.” The Fed’s dual Read more […]