Tag Archives: DJCI

The Hottest El Niño Yet

Catastrophic weather events are happening now as we are experiencing deadly heat in India, floods in Houston, Oklahoma and Mexico, and the drought in California.  The ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation): Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions report prepared by the Climate Prediction Center / NCEP of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) stated on May 26, 2015 Read more […]

Commodities “To Be Or Not To Be” GROWN

There are no conclusive definitions of an asset class or definitive lists of asset classes, but asset allocation depends on how one chooses to define asset classes that collectively form the opportunity set. A company owned by Morningstar called Ibbotson Associates together with PIMCO pulled together some research on the topic that I think is interesting. They present a Read more […]

Cracking Contango: Brent-Gas Hits 6-Year Seasonal Low

The Brent crude oil and unleaded gasoline price difference, or “crack spread“, is a widely followed relationship to measure the value extracted along the chain of producing oil to refining it that can serve as a proxy for profit margins.  The EIA (Energy Information Agency) reported global gasoline supply and demand patterns have been evolving with demand greater Read more […]

Myth Busted, Twice: Top 14 of 2014

Commodities are on track to post one of their worst years in history with the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) losing 17.3% and the S&P GSCI losing 32.1% through Dec. 29, 2014. According to the DJCI with data back to 1999, only 2001 and 2008 posted bigger losses, down 18.4% and 36.0%, respectively.  In the longer history of Read more […]

Low Chinese CPI: A Commodity Catalyst?

Following weak Chinese economic data, several headline stories broke about commodities crashing although the only sectors with consistent losers are energy and grains.  One news story stated, “Copper prices resumed their decline on Wednesday, after data showed that inflation in China slowed to the lowest level in five years, underling concerns over a slowdown in Read more […]

The Scary Thing About Falling Oil Prices

I don’t believe what the gas experts say, “that there is nowhere for gas prices to go but down.” After another bloodshed month for crude oil as evidenced by the S&P GSCI Crude Oil return of -10.9% in Oct, bringing it down 24.6% off its high on June 20, one might get excited about further savings Read more […]

The Great Barrier To Commodities Down Under

This week I am in Australia meeting with investors about commodities.  Usually when I visit a heavy natural resource producing country, the conversations flow easily since the locals understand commodities.  We have been discussing farms, coal, iron ore and tin – subjects that engulf the culture of the locals.  The Australians seem to know all Read more […]

Keep Calm and Understand Scotland’s Oil Impact

Will Scotland vote to become independent? That’s a big question, especially for the future of commodity indices.  This is since one of the largest commodities in the indices is Brent crude oil – the oil produced in the North Sea off of Scotland’s coast.  If Scotland separates from the United Kingdom, there may be consequences Read more […]

Picking Factors Beats Picking Winners

If you were to ask a few commodity experts what is going on with precious metals (like an attendee did at our 8th annual commodities conference), the answer is long-winded since the story is different for each commodity.  A few years back, the answer was far more simple where it depended on the RORO environment that Read more […]

Russia, Where’s The Wheat?

Wheat lost more than 8% in July from the near perfect weather that brought the agriculture sector down to its lowest in four years.  Now, in the first week of August the DJCI All Wheat Total Return is already up 5.4% MTD through Aug 7, despite a 1.2% loss for the day. However, Russia’s food trade ban has implications that Read more […]