Tag Archives: Brexit

Divining Brexit

The markets’ view of the pending British referendum on EU membership displays the hallmarks of a low probability, high impact event.  Correlations, and volatility expectations, are the key indicators. When macroeconomic risk is dominant, as a select few narratives come to preoccupy investors, correlations increase.  For example, in August and September 2015, markets worldwide were roiled Read more […]

Indexing the Brexit

The central bank of England has said that the European Union referendum in June 2016 is the most significant near-term domestic risk to the country’s financial stability.  Because of its separate currency, Britain is one of the countries that could disassociate itself most easily from the EU.  It is a long time until June, and Read more […]