The Rupees’s One Way Slide – Is There a Silver Lining?

In the past few weeks, most of the Indian treasury desks have taken on a war-room look. Too many events got crammed in relatively short time. Most of us know that Rupee has seen a near oneway slide against the dollar, losing nearly 26% in value in last 2 years. It’s but natural that RBI Read more […]

Too High or Too Low? Look at Tobin’s Q

August was not the best of months in the stock market: the S&P 500 lost 3.1% and the Dow lost 4.4%.  This leaves investors wondering what’s next? The stock market bounces up and down more often with more amplitude and less method to its madness than the rest of the economy.   If one could get Read more […]

Recent Changes in India – Impetus for ETF Growth?

Since its inception a decade ago, ETFs’ in India have clocked significant growth. The number of ETFs’ and ETP listed has grown to 37 and are spread across Gold and Equity with a single money market ETF. While the assets are currently at $2bn, there are changes afoot which will see the ETF business undergo Read more […]

To perform or not to perform…that is the question for the Indian PSU ?

The notion of an investment in equity of a public sector undertaking may appear to be a very stable investment with long term growth opportunity especially in developing countries like India. However if we explore the performance of the S&P BSE PSU with S&P BSE SENSEX in a five year horizon, the picture turns out Read more […]

Jaw-Boning at the Fed

When the FOMC minutes were released on Wednesday (August 21st) at 2:00 PM analysts and investors combed through all ten pages looking for some hint of when QE3 might be tapered or what new trigger was be watched by the Fed.  This was old news from a time capsule:  The meeting was three weeks earlier Read more […]

Holding Bonds As Rates Rise

This week’s FOMC minutes revealed that almost all the members of the committee agreed that it was not yet time to begin tapering the Fed’s asset purchases. Many committee members urged additional caution, and advocated waiting until more concrete evidence about the economy’s recovery was available. The report continued to explain that the members generally Read more […]

Back to School Shopping: Pricey Clothes Are Not Just Name-Brand

If you are back to school shopping and notice clothing prices are higher this year, don’t just blame it on designer brands. Cotton has been on a roll as measured by the S&P GSCI Cotton, which is up 21.5% YTD through Aug. 19, 2013. The last time the S&P GSCI Cotton was up over 20% YTD through Read more […]

Malaise and Fears of Fed Tapering

The market’s malaise and its poor results on Thursday August 15th are being blamed on fears of Fed tapering.  Unless the Fed has a surprise change of heart, these fears will be with until tapering starts, so examining them is worthwhile.   Most signs suggest the economy will continue to gain strength.  Weekly initial unemployment claims Read more […]

Fear Gauge Spikes: Let’s Play Hot Potato

For what risk does the commodity investor get paid? At what point is the fear gauge so high the risk gets passed like a hot potato? The answers to these questions will help explain why post the global financial crisis there has been a link between VIX spikes and commodity losses. Let’s address the first Read more […]

How Badly is Gold Bleeding?

In light of much negative news about the bust in gold, I thought it might be interesting to share the impact the gold drop has had on dollar exposure in the two most widely used commodity indices, the S&P GSCI and DJ-UBS.  Below is a note we published today in a media bulletin: Good afternoon Read more […]