Something’s Missing in the Housing Recovery

The two most popular comments about the housing recovery are that it’s weak and the reason why GDP growth is so slow.  There is some truth to both of these — the problem is new single family homes. Looking across housing, one sees surprisingly strong construction of apartments, progress in working through the backlog of Read more […]

After May Showers, CDS Markets Are Feeling Sunny About Summer

Over the course of a month when Mother Nature could not decide which season it was in New York City, credit market swap (CDS) market participants as a whole decided credit default insurance was too high. CDS benchmark indices like the S&P/ISDA U.S. 150 Credit Spread Index tightened 4.9%. Every sector spread that compiles the Read more […]

Building the Indian Skyline

Since the global recession in 2008, India has been witnessing a slower real growth. Despite being a labor surplus country, India lacks adequate infrastructure to sustain the growth of labor-intensive industries which provide employment to the unskilled to semi-skilled workforce. The Global Competitiveness Index published by World Economic Forum placed India on the 3rd position Read more […]

The 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Levels Not Seen Since Last June

The last time the yield of the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index was in the neighborhood of 2.4% was back in June 2013. The days of a 1% handle on rates are behind us, but the current lower rates harken back before this year. The beginning of 2014 saw yields as high Read more […]

Another Double-digit Pay Raise (it’s not just executives)

S&P 500 DIVIDENDS ON TRACK FOR DOUBLE-DIGIT INCREASE IN CASH PAYMENTS IN 2014: PAID 5 MO MAY,’14 + CURRENT DECLARED RATE FOR THE NEXT 7 MO = 10.5% INCREASE OVER 2013 Absent quick dividend cuts, it would appear we are past the point of not posting a double-digit gain in actual cash dividends payments for Read more […]

Today’s Economic Indicators not moving the dial on yields.

The yield on the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Index since its step down on May 13th as a result of Retail Sales has remained in a range of 2.48% to 2.58%.  There are a number of economic releases scheduled to follow the U.S. Memorial Day Holiday.  Today’s reporting of Durable Goods Orders (0.8% versus Read more […]

Initial Q1,’14 S&P 500 stats:

With 95% of EPS reported and approximately 80% of the data items collected via S.E.C. documents: Buybacks: Buybacks are on track to be the second highest on record, as more companies do Share Count Reduction (SCR), therefore giving their EPS a tailwind. With over 90% of the issues reported, 119 issues have decreased their share Read more […]

S&P BSE SENSEX – Does it really reflect the performance of the Indian Capital Market?

It’s hot out there in India. Is it because of the peak of summer? Or because of the Modi swearing in as a PM? Or because of the S&P BSE SENSEX is reaching new highs in the past few weeks? On May 9, 2014, the index reached another new, all-time high of 23,048.49 (price return Read more […]

The Challenging Outlook for Interest Rates

Analysts and forecasters in the US expect that the Fed will hold the fed funds rate at its current zero to 25 bp target until around the middle of 2015.  Meanwhile, expectations about Europe are shifting.   Recent comments from the UK by the former deputy governor of the Bank of England and others suggest that Read more […]

Worth Every Penny

This morning’s Wall Street Journal reports that “Investors are piling into the shares of small, risky companies at the fastest clip on record, in search of investments that promise a chance of outsize returns….”  We’ve commented on such risk-seeking behavior earlier, because it has an important bearing on the low volatility anomaly. The tendency for low-volatility or Read more […]