Tag Archives: VIX

When Market Timing Is Unusually Pointless

Among the many themes to have emerged in U.S. markets during the first six months of 2017, low volatility in equities and changes in the global interest rate environment—some realized and some anticipated—were particularly important drivers.  In a similar vein to our summary on Europe, here are some thoughts on these trends. The potential rewards Read more […]

VIX Hit Below 10 in Q2: What Do We Know From the Past?

With the French election ending in the defeat of Le Pen, one more risk factor has been removed from the table and low volatility has returned.  In Q2, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX®) fell below 10 seven times, and the closing level of 9.75 on June 2, 2017, was the lowest since 1993.  Do these Read more […]

Regime Change? Not according to the VIX term structure…

Since the U.S. election, a degree of optimism over potential business-friendly legislation – ranging from tax reform to infrastructure spending – has played a significant part in sending benchmarks such as the S&P 500 to new all-time highs.  Whether this optimism will be justified by actual legislation, of course, is a different issue. At a minimum, recent Read more […]

April: A Testing Month for VIX Traders

Shorting VIX® was among the top strategies in the past year.  XIV and SVXY both went up over 50% in Q1 2017 (~15% in March alone), almost doubled in the past six months, and returned ~180% over the past 12 months (see Exhibit 1).  However, the declining VIX spot level can only explain part of Read more […]

VIX is holding the Trump card

Despite a narrowing election race and a deluge of earnings, the S&P 500 has not seen a daily change greater than 1% in nearly four weeks.  Realized volatility remains remarkably low.  But the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a predictive measure of future volatility that is often seen as Wall Street’s “fear gauge” – has Read more […]

Examining Low Volatility’s Performance in Various Market Environments

Rates, volatility and a broad market rally have contributed to the factor’s late-summer slump Late summer has not been fruitful for the low volatility factor. From July 6 to Sept. 9, the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index has fallen by 4.67%, while the S&P 500 Index gained 1.70%.1 This is in sharp contrast to the Read more […]

A long time coming: Real estate moves out from under the shadow of financials – Part 2

Interest rates have influenced the performance of REITs relative to bank shares Interest rates have a strong influence on equity REIT performance, as evidenced by the graphic below, which displays the relationship between the 10-year Treasury yield and the relative performance of the S&P 500 Banks Index to the S&P 500 Real Estate Investment Trusts Read more […]

A long time coming: Real estate moves out from under the shadow of financials – Part 1

Real estate’s new sector status uncovers key differences between REITs and financial stocks As of Sept. 1, S&P and MSCI have established real estate as the 11th sector within the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) by separating it from the financials sector. Under this arrangement, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are now classified as follows: Read more […]

Fallen Oil Might Now Be Spilling Into Every Stock Sector

Something unusual happened in August in commodities where energy was the only sector that rose.  Despite the negative non-energy performance, supply shocks created pockets of opportunity for some individual commodities within industrial metals and agriculture. Now, oil has turned negative again from record high inventories despite U.S. production cuts, because OPEC producers have more than filled the gap Read more […]

The VIX is Low, But Should You Fasten Your Seatbelt?

VIX has spent the whole of August below 14, and remains – at time of writing – close to its lowest levels in two years.  But the present calm may be dependent on a short-term seasonal effect; and we are approaching the traditional period where it ends. August is traditionally a quiet month for U.S. Read more […]