Tag Archives: U.S. Fed
Will Inflation Actually Be Transitory?
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.” – Milton Friedman “If we do see what we believe is likely a transitory increase in inflation … I expect that we will…
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U.S. Treasuries Sold Off with Rising Breakeven Inflation in January
The year 2021 started with a continuous sell-off in the U.S. Treasury bond market. Starting on the second trading day of the year, yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond rose for five consecutive trading days by 23 bps until Jan. 12, 2021, when strong auction results for the 10-year note pulled the yield back…
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The Fed’s Corporate Bond Purchases and Their Impact on Corporate Bond Issuance
In response to COVID-19 and its disruptive impact on the credit market, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) and the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF) on March 23, 2020, to support the functioning of the credit market. The PMCCF provides a funding backstop for corporate…
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Will Powell Power the Aristocrats?
As the recovery from the Global Financial Crisis edged forward in the early 2010s, inflation hawks warned about the “certainty” of an imminent spike in inflation following the aggressive stimulus measures taken by global central banks. Unfortunately for the U.S. Federal Reserve and some of its other monetary counterparts, that certainty never materialized, and it…
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The Flood of U.S. Treasury Issuance and Duration Supply Continues
In its Q3 2020 refunding statement1 released on Aug. 5, 2020, the U.S. Treasury announced its plan to increase auction sizes across all nominal coupon tenors over the August-October quarter, with larger increases in longer tenors (7-year, 10-year, 20-year and 30-year). To gauge the demand appetite for U.S. Treasuries, let’s review the size and composition…
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As ETF Fund Flows Surge, Don’t Fight the Fed’s Passive Investing Philosophy
Investing legend Marty Zweig famously declared, “don’t fight the Fed.” With the Fed now buying fixed income ETFs and fund flows of index-based ETFs surging, Marty’s advice is proving timely. In this blog post, we review key index-based product performance leading up to the Fed’s intervention and detail the ETF fund flows that followed. Back…
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Channeling Maverick and the Maestro: The Fed Cut Rates because “We Were Inverted”
One of the classic scenes from the original Top Gun movie recounts the exchange Maverick (Tom Cruise) had with a MiG-28. Maverick corrects Charlie’s (Kelly McGillis) intelligence report on the Russian fighter jet with his eyewitness account. When she asks how he saw a MiG-28 perform a 4G dive from above, he responds: “Because I…
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As Markets Await Fed Chair Nomination, U.S. Treasury Curve Continues to Flatten
President Trump said he will make an announcement during the week of Oct. 30, 2017, regarding his nomination for who will replace Chairwoman Janet Yellen when her term ends in January 2018. Most reports suggest current Fed Governor Jerome Powell will get the nod over Stanford University economics Professor John Taylor. Mr. Taylor could still…
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