Tag Archives: U.S. economy

Developing Expectations for Long-Term U.S. Stock Returns

In this bull market, by some measures the longest running in U.S. history, investors may wonder what its prospects for continuation are. Judging by rolling quarterly 10-year annualized returns, the S&P 500® does not necessarily seem over-extended. As Exhibit 1 shows, since the end of World War II, large retracements followed lengthy periods of greater-than-10% Read more […]

THIS Could Change If Oil Slides 50% More

Now that brent broke the $80 mark, many are questioning whether a bottom has been reached.  The combination of slowing Chinese demand growth and Saudi’s will to maintain market share make this an unlikely bottom, but it depends more on the supply growth than the slowing demand growth from China. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have Read more […]

US Economy Finished 2013 Healthier than Ever

The US economy finished 2013 healthier than it has been since the depths of the financial recession in 2008 and 2009.  There were a number of milestones in 2013; many have not been fully appreciated. First, the US energy production boom has probably adding some 0.5% annually to US real GDP.  US crude oil production Read more […]