Tag Archives: Trump

Regime Change? Not according to the VIX term structure…

Since the U.S. election, a degree of optimism over potential business-friendly legislation – ranging from tax reform to infrastructure spending – has played a significant part in sending benchmarks such as the S&P 500 to new all-time highs.  Whether this optimism will be justified by actual legislation, of course, is a different issue. At a minimum, recent Read more […]

Is Trump Making Commodities Great Again In His First 100 Days?

The short answer is no.  The S&P GSCI (Spot) is down 4.0% since Jan 20, which is the 6th worst start of the 8 presidencies measurable by the S&P GSCI.  Besides Trump, the data covers the start of the presidencies for Ford, Carter, Reagan, George H. W. Bush, Clinton, George W. Bush and Obama. However, not all Read more […]

The First 100 Days

In 100 days one can: Sequentially boil 48,000 three minute eggs Enjoy nearly 1,372 viewings of The Usual Suspects (a tally I’ll admit to being embarrassingly close to achieving) Assemble evidence to render an arbitrary judgment on the accomplishments of a newly-elected US President Tomorrow marks the end of Donald Trump’s first 100 days in Read more […]

How Commodities Might Do Under Clinton, Trump

In October, the S&P GSCI Total Return (TR) lost 1.5% but the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) TR gained 0.1%.  The performance disparity was mainly due to the weighting difference in energy since crude oil in the indices slid near 10% from its mid-month high, on doubts over OPEC’s ability to agree on production cuts and the Read more […]