Tag Archives: Russia

OPEC May Be Losing Oil Pricing Power

In May 2014, the new deal Gazprom signed to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is about the amount NY state uses annually, of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years changed the world more than anyone may have anticipated. It’s not just because it took 10 years to negotiate Read more […]

Blood in the bourses of Moscow

Things are not all well with Russian equities.  The S&P Russia Broad Market Index has lost more than half its value in U.S. dollar terms since the summer.  There is figurative blood on the streets.  If we were to follow the example of the founding members of the Rothschild banking dynasty, we would be lending Read more […]

THIS Could Change If Oil Slides 50% More

Now that brent broke the $80 mark, many are questioning whether a bottom has been reached.  The combination of slowing Chinese demand growth and Saudi’s will to maintain market share make this an unlikely bottom, but it depends more on the supply growth than the slowing demand growth from China. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have Read more […]

Russia, Where’s The Wheat?

Wheat lost more than 8% in July from the near perfect weather that brought the agriculture sector down to its lowest in four years.  Now, in the first week of August the DJCI All Wheat Total Return is already up 5.4% MTD through Aug 7, despite a 1.2% loss for the day. However, Russia’s food trade ban has implications that Read more […]

3 Reasons Putin’s Nat Gas Deal Is A Big Deal

It’s not just because it took 10 years to negotiate with China or is worth $400 billion, but the new deal Gazprom signed to supply 38 billion cubic meters (bcm), which is about the amount NY state uses annually, of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years may be a major game changer Read more […]

What Is So Super About Chinese Demand?

We have heard for many years now about the Chinese super-cycle that supported commodity prices since 1999 and we have also heard many debates about whether it has ended.  So if it has ended what now? How huge is the impact on commodity prices? That all depends on the level of inventories that result from Read more […]

COMMODITY COMEBACK

It is no surprise that now might be the perfect environment for brewing commodities.   The S&P GSCI was up 4.5% in February and was in backwardation for the first time in February since 2004. In 2004, the S&P GSCI returned 17.3%. 22 of 24 commodities in the S&P GSCI were positive in February. All 5 sectors were positive, led by agriculture, Read more […]

International events take the front seat

Due to the political issues surrounding Russia and the Ukraine, the yield of the 10-Treasury as measured by the S&P/BGCantor Current 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond Index tightened by 8 basis points over the course of the last week of February.  The index returned 0.39% for the month as the year-to-date is now a 3.94%. Investors Read more […]

Chinese New Year: Element of Wood

In honor of the Chinese New Year, 2014 – Green Wood Horse (馬 午), CCTV interviewed me on lumber.  As for other commodities, The Year of The Horse should be prosperous for lumber, especially for China’s sawmill industry, enabling them to support their construction boom by importing whole logs and sawing them into lumber at a Read more […]

Lower Gas Bill? Why Not?

As mentioned in my last post, logistics and technology are the two key factors in propelling commodities from local markets to global markets. The U.S. is now expected to be the biggest producer of natural gas in 2013, so what does that mean for the residents? Will gas bills be cheaper? Will there be a Read more […]