Tag Archives: recession

Yield Curve Anxiety

The slope of the yield curve is a good recession predictor. When the curve is inverted – when the yield on three month T-bills is greater than the yield on the ten year T-Note – a recession is imminent. Similar signals can be seen if the T-bill is replaced by a two- or three-year T-Note Read more […]

How Will It End?

The Fed is raising interest rates, the yields on Treasury notes are climbing, the stock market just had a hyper-speed correct, VIX spiked and the inflation numbers are worrying.  Is there a message buried in all these data? Maybe not a clear message, but one sure thing and some hints.  The sure thing is that Read more […]

Recession Rumors

One sign that people are worried about a recession is getting questions about one on days the market rises.  There seem to have been more down days than up days since the start of the year and the recession question is being asked more on all days. The current recovery is weaker than other recent rebounds. Read more […]