Tag Archives: interest rates

U.S. Yield Curve Moved by Europe

The U.S. Treasury yield curve, as represented by the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current Indices, ended June 14, 2017, tighter (lower in yield) than the previous day.  The importance of June 14 is that it was the day on which the U.S. Federal Reserve raised the target rate by 25 bps, from 1% to 1.25%.  The following Read more […]

Inflation, Rising Rates Can Spark Oil’s Rebound

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting Wednesday that may raise the federal funds target rate, here’s what you need to know about how the decision impacts commodities. Historically rising interest rates are positive for commodities for two main reasons.  One is the return on collateral increases, pushing up the total return. The other reason Read more […]

Is Mexico Still Attractive to Foreigners?

In an environment of increasing rates, Mexico has not been left behind.  As seen in my last blog, since December 2015, Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico) has increased the reference rate by 375 bps, with the last 25 bps being a surprise for analysts and the market on May 19, 2017.  I remember the days when Read more […]

Rising Rates Arrive

Which of the figures below belong together?   It’s obvious, even if analogies aren’t your strong suit, that A is like C and B is like D.  A and C are not like B and D. The economic relevance of this simple visual exercise is this: At its March 2017 meeting, the Federal Open Market Read more […]

No News, and No Implications

This morning’s Wall Street Journal reported, rather breathlessly, that “U.S. bond yields are topping a key measure of the dividends that large U.S. companies pay—a shift that has broad implications for investors….”  The headline was triggered by the observation that the 2.50% “yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note…exceeded the 1.91% dividend yield on the Read more […]

Commodity February Facts, Bears to Bulls, & Interest Rate Winners

It was a flattish February for commodities with the S&P GSCI Total Return up 23 basis points for a year-to-date return of -1.2%, and the Dow Jones Commodity Index up 11 basis points bringing its year-to-date return to 78 basis points.  Overall  in the S&P GSCI TR, 3 of 5 sectors were positive and 14 of Read more […]

Advisors Managing Interest Rate Risk With Municipal Bond Indices and ETFS

Given that our crystal balls are opaque for predicting interest rates, I thought it would be interesting to continue my interview with two financial advisors about managing interest rate risk in the municipal bond asset class. Matt Papazian is founding partner and CIO at Cardan Capital Partners of Denver, Colorado, and Tom Cartee is a Read more […]

When Smart Beta Fails

How should an investor in a factor (or “smart beta”) index judge its performance?  In this respect at least, smart beta is like any other strategy: you should evaluate it against the claims that its vendors made before you bought it. This requires some subtlety.  Smart beta methodologies pick stocks based on fundamental or technical Read more […]

Rising Rates Revisited…

The prospect for and ramifications of rising interest rates have surfaced time and again in recent years. Whether and when the Fed will raise rates next is anyone’s guess. But as we’ve noted before, the correlation between higher interest rates and equity declines has grown tenuous in recent history.  Since 1991, the S&P 500 has Read more […]

S&P U.S. High Quality Preferred Stock Index: A Venn of an Index

Similar to the Venn diagram in which the overlapping section of circles is the focus, the S&P U.S. High Quality Preferred Stock Index is designed to measure preferred securities that are constituents of both the fixed-rate and investment-grade preferred stock indices. Exhibit 1: S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Indices Hierarchy The weight of cumulative preferred stocks Read more […]