Tag Archives: interest rates

Mexican Currency and Elections

General elections (president, senate, and chamber of deputies) are around the corner. The eyes of every Mexican and many people around the globe are on the Mexico-Brazil match of the World Cup—wait, that is another story. Nobody knows what the outcome of the elections will be. We have seen different events where the polls were Read more […]

Low Volatility Rate Response – Interest Rate Changes and Relative Performance

In a prior post, we saw that during sharp rising interest rate periods, the S&P 500® Low Volatility Rate Response fared better than the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index, even though both indices generally underperformed the S&P 500. In this post, we examine if there is a relationship between the magnitude of interest rate changes Read more […]

Small Caps Beating Large By The Most In 16 Years

Small caps just outperformed large caps for three consecutive months for the first time since Sep. 2016.  From Feb. through May, the S&P SmallCap 600 (TR) outpaced the S&P 500 (TR) by 9.5%. It is the biggest premium realized in a three month period since the three months ending in May 2002.  In fact, outperformance this big has only happened Read more […]

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the Read more […]

Here’s How A Rising Dollar Impacts Stocks

The U.S. dollar hit a 4 month high last week from concern over potentially faster interest rate hikes to control inflation as oil exceeded $70 per barrel and the lowest unemployment since 2000 was reported.  If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, it may be useful to know how U.S. equities moved historically in times when the Read more […]

Interest Rate Risk of Low Volatility Indices – Part II

In a previous blog, we performed preliminary exploration of rising interest rate exposure of the S&P 500® Low Volatility Index. In this blog, we continue the analysis to see if there is a relationship between the magnitude of interest rate change and magnitude of active return of the low volatility index relative to the S&P Read more […]

Interest Rate Risk of Low Volatility Indices

A topic commonly brought up when interest rates rise is the impact that rates have on the performance of low volatility indices. Several studies[1][2] have shown that low volatility portfolios have exposure to rising interest rate risk. One of the main drivers of this exposure stems from the bond-like characteristics of sectors usually favored by Read more […]

Where May Equities Go From Here?

February ended the longest historical monthly winning streak of 15 months for the S&P 500 (TR) that lost 3.7%.  On a total return basis for the month, 10 of 11 sectors lost, which has only happened in 12 of 342 months or 3.5% of the time (all 11 lost together in 13 months for a Read more […]

Considering REIT Lease Durations in a Rising Rate Environment

U.S. REITS have been lagging broad U.S. equities. During the recent climb in 10-year Treasury yields from the 2018 low of 2.41% on January 2, to as high as 2.94% on February 21, the Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index declined 11.2%. Though we have found that REITS have generally fared well over full cycles Read more […]

Laddered Protection

Continuing the theme of rising interest rates and following up from my last blog, “With all the News of Higher Interest Rates, Don’t Forget About Floating-Rate Debt,” bond laddering is a strategy that provides increased income and the ability to adjust the stream of income in a rising-interest-rate environment. The approach is to invest in Read more […]