Tag Archives: inflation

Inflation, Rising Rates Can Spark Oil’s Rebound

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting Wednesday that may raise the federal funds target rate, here’s what you need to know about how the decision impacts commodities. Historically rising interest rates are positive for commodities for two main reasons.  One is the return on collateral increases, pushing up the total return. The other reason Read more […]

100 Days Later in Mexico

100 days…is it a milestone?  Is it a key number?  I’m not sure, but everybody looks like they love to write about it, so I will too.  What I know is in Mexico we have a saying that goes, “If the U.S. sneezes, Mexico gets a cold.”  Following Dennis Badlyans’s post “Does the Outperformance of Read more […]

Inflation

Supported by a stronger economy and higher oil prices, recent readings of inflation are rising. The Fed’s principal gauge, the personal consumption expenditures deflator excluding food and energy (Core PCE) is approaching but still below its 2% target. The more widely recognized CPI and CPI excluding food and energy are both rising and a bit Read more […]

The Turning Point

Thirty-five years ago on September 30, 1981 the 10 Year treasury yield peaked at 15.85%.  With a few bumps it has slid downward ever since – until now. The events of the last few weeks moved interest rates higher and added about 25 bp to the ten year treasury.  Even allowing for some near-term volatility Read more […]

Rising Rates and Inflation: Implications for Equities

Even a cursory glance at financial markets indicates that market participants are expecting some form of interest rate increase in the near future—there has been a sell-off in the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond market, and certain sectors that are expected to benefit from such a rate increase have gained.  For instance, the S&P 500 Financials Read more […]

Why Cutting OPEC Supply From Highest to Higher Still Hurts

After OPEC agreed to an oil output cut in Algiers on Sep. 29, they increased supply by 230 kb/d to a record 33.83 mb/d in October according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).  Supply from Iraq reached the highest level ever and Iran pushed flows to a pre-sanctions rate of 3.72 mb/d. Now OPEC supply has Read more […]

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence Read more […]

Asian Fixed Income: The Philippines After the Key Overnight Rate Cut

The Central Bank of the Philippines unexpectedly lowered the key overnight rate to 3% from 4% on June 3, 2016, as it shifted to an interest rate corridor system to “improve the transmission of monetary policy.”[1]  Sovereign bonds have had a strong rally since then; the total return rose 10.82% YTD, while the yield-to-maturity tightened Read more […]

Master Class Prep: The Transparency of Canadian Indices

In anticipation of S&P Dow Jones Indices’ ETF Masterclass for Canadian Advisors on June 23, 2016: A Bright Future for Financial Advisory, it helps to revisit some of the company’s involvement in the country.  Our firm has always been committed to Canada, with an office on King Street West, and the company has always shown Read more […]

Inflation or Why Raise Interest Rates

The minutes of the Fed’s April 26-7 meeting convinced almost everyone that the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in June, but left them wondering why.  Most of the subsequent discussion centered on the labor market and how close the economy is to full employment. There was also some whispering about inflation. Read more […]