Tag Archives: inflation

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the Read more […]

Here’s How A Rising Dollar Impacts Stocks

The U.S. dollar hit a 4 month high last week from concern over potentially faster interest rate hikes to control inflation as oil exceeded $70 per barrel and the lowest unemployment since 2000 was reported.  If the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen, it may be useful to know how U.S. equities moved historically in times when the Read more […]

Drilling Into Industries Finds What Lifts Energy Stocks With Oil

As oil prices continue to increase, the energy sector is rising but recently the mid and small cap stocks are outpacing the large caps.  Thus far in April (month-to-date through April 12, 2018,) the energy sector is leading all other sectors, but the S&P 500 Energy (Sector) is up just 4.8% versus the gain of Read more […]

Where May Equities Go From Here?

February ended the longest historical monthly winning streak of 15 months for the S&P 500 (TR) that lost 3.7%.  On a total return basis for the month, 10 of 11 sectors lost, which has only happened in 12 of 342 months or 3.5% of the time (all 11 lost together in 13 months for a Read more […]

Spending Too Little In Retirement?

Yes, you read that right.  You might not be spending enough in retirement.  It seems impossible after rigorously following savings plans during the course of your career in order to achieve that golden nest-egg to provide just what you need to retire.  However, a problem arises when “what you need to retire” might not be Read more […]

How Will It End?

The Fed is raising interest rates, the yields on Treasury notes are climbing, the stock market just had a hyper-speed correct, VIX spiked and the inflation numbers are worrying.  Is there a message buried in all these data? Maybe not a clear message, but one sure thing and some hints.  The sure thing is that Read more […]

3 Reasons To Love Equities When Rates Are Rising

Equities haven’t been the most lovable asset class lately but there are reasons to love them despite these prickly times.  The first reason to love equities in rising rate times is that they have gained significantly. Since 1971, the S&P 500 (TR) has gained about 20% on average in rising rate periods, has gained 8 of Read more […]

Inflation News and Fears

Two weeks ago inflation fears sparked by a surprise jump in wage gains sent the markets into a tail spin. This week will deliver two rounds of inflation news with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.  Month to month changes in both the CPI and PPI Read more […]

Energy Stocks Beat Oil Futures In Rising Inflation

There may be a legitimate concern about rising inflation since inflation has been under the Fed’s target for years and there is now very low unemployment with signs of accelerating economic growth.  The low unemployment rate and strong growth are probably positive for the stock market and the tax cuts may provide even more upside.  However, Read more […]

Feliz Año Nuevo From Latin America

After Donald Trump became the 45th president of the U.S., the Dow® hit the 20,000 mark for the first time in history, there was a total solar eclipse, along with massive hurricanes, floods in Colombia, earthquakes in Mexico, a referendum in Catalonia, and the New England Patriots made an historic comeback in Super Bowl LI, Read more […]