Tag Archives: index performance

One Big Problem In July For One Small Cap Index

Much attention has been drawn to small caps by top tier media since the small cap premium is now the biggest in eight years and the fifth biggest in history. The outperformance of the small cap stocks versus the large caps is being driven by the current economic environment of growth, rising interest rates, inflation and Read more […]

Small Cap Premium Is 5th Biggest In History

Small caps are outperforming large caps (S&P 600 (TR) – S&P 500 (TR)) in H1 2018 by the most in eight years, since H1 2010, from growing  concerns over rising tariffs and general U.S. foreign trade policy. In the past four months, the smaller companies have outperformed larger companies by 10.1%, contributing to the 5th biggest Read more […]

Momentum’s Minsky Moment?

U.S. equity funds following momentum (or relative strength) strategies have generally performed well recently, and their performance has been rewarded with inflows.  This is important because momentum, uniquely among investment styles, is self-reinforcing – until it isn’t. Typically, as factors become more popular, their excess returns are likely to diminish.  For example: the more value Read more […]

Small Caps Beating Large By The Most In 16 Years

Small caps just outperformed large caps for three consecutive months for the first time since Sep. 2016.  From Feb. through May, the S&P SmallCap 600 (TR) outpaced the S&P 500 (TR) by 9.5%. It is the biggest premium realized in a three month period since the three months ending in May 2002.  In fact, outperformance this big has only happened Read more […]

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the Read more […]

Small Caps Rebound Big in March

The first quarter of 2018 will be remembered as the quarter that ended the 9 quarter winning streak for the S&P 500 (TR).  As the volatility rose, the market went from posting its best January since 1997, up 5.7%, to losing 3.7% in February, its first monthly loss in 15 months.  February wasn’t only bad Read more […]

Why Your Interest In Weights Should Rise With Rates

Historically as interest rates have risen, equities have done well.  As illustrated in this post, since 1971, the S&P 500 (TR) has gained about 20% on average in rising rate periods, has gained 8 of 9 times and has gained nearly 40% twice with less than a 4% loss for its worst rising rate period.  Also shown Read more […]

The Skew Is Not New

Market observers have noted that the S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been dominated by a small number of technology stocks.  This observation is certainly correct, although it’s fair to question the relevance of a statistic based on fewer than two months’ data.  What’s more important is to bear in mind that this Read more […]

With all the News of Higher Interest Rates, Don’t Forget About Floating-Rate Debt

The story line for a number of years now has been the “search for yield” and how the recent low-interest-rate environment has been forcing investors down in credit or out the maturity curve in an effort to maintain income though adding risk. Now that interest rates have begun reversing the low-rate environment, fixed-coupon securities may Read more […]

S&P 500 Posts Best January Since 1997

If the glass can be more than half full, this stock market glass is so full, it’s time to wonder when it may spill over.  Large-caps continue to lead the U.S. equity market with the S&P 500 (TR)  delivering its 15th consecutively positive month, its best month since March 2016, its best January since 1997 Read more […]