Tag Archives: housing

Price-to-Rent as an Overvaluation Metric

Market Conditions Indicator and price-to-rent can locate overheated metros The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index has documented that home prices have risen in all metropolitan areas over the last few years.  While price gains vary considerably across urban markets, some places have had especially rapid appreciation that put values above their pre-Great Recession peak, even after Read more […]

Inflation: Benign for Now

Having broken through 2% in January 2018, the 10-year U.S. Treasury breakeven rate (as measured by the difference between the S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Current 10-Year Index and the S&P U.S. TIPS 10 Year Index) has continued to increase, reaching a YTD high of 2.18% on April 23, 2018. As of May 14, 2018, the Read more […]

A Bit of Long History

Houses or Stocks Either could be an investment, if only we knew which would perform better?  We don’t, but a recently released academic paper, “The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015” offers understanding and some unexpected facts from the past.  The paper covers 16 developed markets and compiles the real and nominal returns on equities, Read more […]

Party like it’s 2007

House sales and prices are rising.  Home sales in June were 5.57 million at annual rates, the highest since February 2007 when national home prices peaked.  Currently prices as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index are climbing at a 5% annual rate and are a mere 3% from their all-time peak. What next?  Read more […]

Don’t Blame Tight Supplies for Rising Home Prices

The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index shows prices of existing single family homes rising 5.3% annually in the last few months, well above the rate of inflation. Recent comments cite the low inventory of homes for sale as a leading factor in higher prices. Housing markets are local and some communities may be seeing house Read more […]

Will Housing Be Dealt Another Bad Hand?

On Monday, Aug. 24, 2015, the global stock market tumbled, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average® losing 1,000 points in seconds. We have seen similar turbulence in the equity markets in 1987, 1997, 1998, 2007, and 2008. We know that the stock market is an important leading indicator, as it reports on the health of Read more […]

Upbeat Housing Reports

Two recent data points – existing home sales and mortgage debt outstanding – point to continued strength in the housing recovery. May total existing home sales, including single family homes, town houses and condominiums, were 5.35 million, up 5.1% and the highest figure since November 2009. Sales of single family homes were 4.73 million, 5.6% Read more […]

A Tale of Two Energy Cities – Dallas and Denver

This post examines the relationship between Dallas and Denver, utilizing the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for each city.  The pair was selected based on a correlation analysis that yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.84 between the two cities.  This analysis covered the 20 metropolitan indices in the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index series, utilized log returns Read more […]

What Ails Housing Starts

August housing starts, reported today, were disappointing at 956,000 units, a drop of 14.4% from July and 8% from August last year. Only twice this year have monthly reports of housing starts topped a million units at annual rates – from 1991 to the financial crisis in 2008, starts were never below one million.  To Read more […]

A Renewed Interest in High Yield Bonds

High Yield Bond Market – Outlook has changed to the positive, away from the recent stories of overvaluation and fund withdrawals. The S&P U.S. Issued High Yield Corporate Bond Index returned 1% last week and a 0.43% the week before to recover the loss incurred the last week of July (-1.38%).  Year-to-date the index is Read more […]