Tag Archives: gold

Chinese Demand Growth Lifts Every Commodity

Many news headlines point to rising or falling Chinese demand growth as a main influence of commodity performance.  However, there are many other fundamentals like the U.S. dollar and interest rates that drive commodities.  Even in the Chinese market, there are forces besides demand growth like demand for storage and demand for metals to be used as financial Read more […]

Inflation, Rising Rates Can Spark Oil’s Rebound

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting starting Wednesday that may raise the federal funds target rate, here’s what you need to know about how the decision impacts commodities. Historically rising interest rates are positive for commodities for two main reasons.  One is the return on collateral increases, pushing up the total return. The other reason Read more […]

Gold Just Did This for Its First Time Ever in April

Commodities have continued their slump in April with the S&P GSCI Total Return losing 2.1% and Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) Total Return losing 1.7% for year to date performance of -7.1% and -3.6%, respectively.  Only 2 of 5 sectors and 7 of 24 commodities were positive in April.  In the S&P GSCI, livestock gained Read more […]

Commodity Trends Boost Leveraged and Inverse Indices

In the context of declining commodity prices following the global financial crisis, inverse indices became popular for market participants looking to profit from negative returns. As the oil war unfolded and drove commodity prices further down, market participants took a renewed interest in using inverse indices to bet against the market. When commodities rebounded last Read more […]

Base Metals Beat Precious Metals By Most In 26 Years

November was sandwiched between two eventful surprises, starting with the election and ending with OPEC’s agreement to cut output, that resulted in a month filled with big moves, mostly positive.  The Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) Total Return for the month was 2.3%, bringing its year-to-date (YTD) total return to 11.8%.  The S&P GSCI Total Return Read more […]

How Commodities Might Do Under Clinton, Trump

In October, the S&P GSCI Total Return (TR) lost 1.5% but the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) TR gained 0.1%.  The performance disparity was mainly due to the weighting difference in energy since crude oil in the indices slid near 10% from its mid-month high, on doubts over OPEC’s ability to agree on production cuts and the Read more […]

Commodities Post Best September in Six Years

The S&P GSCI Total Return gained 4.1% in Sep., cutting the loss in the 3rd quarter to 4.2% and bring its year-to-date performance to 5.3%.  19 of 24 commodities were positive in Sep., from just 8 in Jul., the most to turn from negative to positive in two months since Jul. 2012. Energy gained 6.1%, making Read more […]

Gold & Silver: Fed Rate Hike Vs Mine Supply

Two factors tend to consistently influence gold and silver — interest rate expectations and mining supply.  Changes in interest rate expectations typically exert a short-term, day-to-day influence that is exogenous to the metals market while mining supply has a long-term, year-to-year influence that is endogenous. Precious metals prices seem to exert little to no influence Read more […]

Commodities Post 3rd Worst July Ever

July was a bloodbath for commodities in the Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJCI) losing 6.0% and in the S&P GSCI losing 9.6% in total return. Although the equally weighted DJCI is still up 7.4% YTD through July 29, 2016, the S&P GSCI that is world-production weighted gave up all its gains from Q2 and is now negative 65 basis Read more […]

The S&P 500® Dynamic Gold Hedged Index Increased in Reaction to Friday’s Brexit Vote

Gold often rallies in times of intense market turmoil, as the safe-haven asset is perceived as a hedge against economic and financial risk.  This was one of the rationales for constructing the S&P 500 Dynamic Gold Hedged Index.  What happened on Friday, June 24, 2016, clearly demonstrated the effectiveness of the strategy in terms of Read more […]